Wen Bitcoin Bull Market? With Rational Root - WBD672
The Peter McCormack Show
Peter McCormack
4.7 • 2.8K Ratings
🗓️ 16 June 2023
⏱️ 72 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The Rational Root is a Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analyst. In this interview, 9 months on from our last interview, we look into the various Bitcoin price models Root has developed. We again review his Bitcoin Spiral Models, Bitcoin Hodl price models and Bitcoin halving & cycle charts. We discuss the growing evidence of Bitcoin scarcity, and bullish cases as we approach the next halving.
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In his first interview on What Bitcoin Did last August, the Rational Root made prescient predictions about Bitcoin bear market lows that occurred a few months later. The caveat is that he also stated "You always have to be a bit sceptical about models that predict the future, they can be wrong." Nevertheless, the models Rational Root has developed have some conspicuous patterns that are worth consideration.
The Bitcoin Spiral chart Rational Root uses is incredibly powerful. It clearly shows a correlation between Bitcoin's price and the halving events. Extrapolating this pattern forward suggests we could be on the cusp of a new bullish price triggered by next year's halving. This phase is predicted to see a material price appreciation between $100,000 and $1 million in the next cycle.
We also debate whether Bitcoin is now correlated with other more significant asset markets, in particular the S&P 500. In essence, is there a correlation between Bitcoin's price and risk appetite in the investment market? If such a link has been established, and a rescission occurs, this could lead to a deviation from the Bitcoin halving cycle patterns.
But perhaps the most bullish analysis Rational Root has undertaken involves the assessment of demand and supply indicators, such as his "Hodl Model", which predicts the growth rate of illiquid supply in Bitcoin. It's simple economics that price is affected by the relationship between demand and supply, and, as Rational Root states "Bitcoin is becoming more scarce, and this data is not being paid attention to by many people."
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | If we keep on following the same pattern, |
| 0:05.0 | Bitcoin should reach between 100,000 and a million in next cycle, |
| 0:10.0 | you know, and possibly higher after that, you know like so so that is quite |
| 0:14.4 | bullish. Hello there how are you all doing where you're having a nice week it's a |
| 0:19.2 | beautiful sunny week here in Bedford absolutely loving it It's nice to be back home. No travels |
| 0:24.7 | until next month but we are heading out to Nashville for the lightning conference |
| 0:28.8 | at Bitcoin Park. Also going to get a couple of days in Austin before I then head out to Argentina to make a film. |
| 0:34.1 | Can't wait to get back out there. But anyway, welcome to the What Bitcoin did podcast, which is brought to you by Iris Energy, |
| 0:40.3 | the largest Nasdaq listed Bitcoin miner miner using 100% renewable energy. |
| 0:44.6 | I'm your host Peter McCormack and today I've got the big orange carrot back on the show. |
| 0:48.6 | I've got Rational Root, now I first spoke to Root in the UK back in August last year |
| 0:53.2 | where he laid out his case |
| 0:55.2 | that Bitcoin was close to the bottom. |
| 0:57.0 | Now this was a really popular show and so far he's been right. |
| 1:00.3 | So while we were out in Miami we knew he was out there. We asked him to come back on the show and answer the question everyone has been asking |
| 1:07.7 | When Moon motherfucker. So it was a great show. Love talking to Ru Ru, comes with a slides, comes with receipts, comes with this |
| 1:15.1 | awesome spiral chart. |
| 1:16.1 | Go and check it out. |
| 1:17.1 | Make sure you check out the YouTube version as well, so you can see all the charts that go with the show. |
| 1:21.2 | Okay, if you've got any questions about this or anything else then |
| 1:23.4 | hit me up on my email is hello of what Bitcoin did.com. |
| 1:28.6 | Hello you big carrot how are you? Pretty good. Good to see you man. So last time I saw you you came to Bedford which was very cool and you kind of called the bottom? More or less, right? |
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