Good morning, everybody, the Simple Handicap for Wednesday, September 27. Thank you for making me a part of your morning.

A reminder, 12.15 p.m. Eastern Time, 9.15 a.m. Pacific Time, NFL week four live stream Q&A over on the RASPix

YouTube channel. If you want to watch it, get your questions in as we go through game by game,

answering anything that you have and want to know about these teams and games, you can join the live stream in real time. If you're busy and you're hung up, you can't make it, but you still want to have a question specifically about any of these teams are game answered. Message me on Twitter. I'll answer it during the stream, and when you're ready, you can go back and watch it later. I'll update the podcast later with the link. If not, it'll be in the description of this podcast episode tomorrow. Just a way where you can dive in a little bit deeper with the games. There's the timestamps in the timeline. So on YouTube, in the app, you can scroll back and forth, go game by game, get all the questions and answers sorted that you may have.

That'll be, again, 9.15 a.m. Pacific, 12.15 Eastern Time.

Let's get to it. NFL week four market rundown for this Wednesday morning.

Lions on the road at the Packers, Circa, showing Lions 1.5 point favorites as are bet online and Fandul.

46 is the total across the board.

I dove into the Packers because I was really uncertain about this team and I kind of hinted

that at the last couple of days.

Here's the thing about Jordan Love, some interesting numbers, and you can look at this team

a couple ways.

So over on the next gen stats, we can see Jordan Love through three weeks of the regular

season leads the NFL in intended air yards per throw at 10.4 yards per pass attempt.

What stands out as well within this is the aggression percentage, which refers to throws

at wide receivers where the nearest defender is within one yard or closer,

essentially a tight window throw. His aggression percentage is 30%. That's 10% higher than Josh Dobbs

at number two. What that means is 30% of all of his pass attempts are to a wide receiver who has very little separation from the

nearest defender. So not only is Love throwing very far downfield, he's throwing into very

tight windows, and because of that, when you look at completion percentage compared to

expectation, Jordan Love through three weeks

is 9.9% below what he would be expected to complete on the passes that he has thrown.

...