Wednesday - March 5, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 5 March 2025
⏱️ 6 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Market Reactions and Economic Insights Post Trump's Congress Address
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach, Florida, discussing the recent fluctuations and overall recovery in the markets following President Trump's address to Congress. He covers various economic indicators, including interest rates, job data, and ISM services performance, highlighting both positive signs for growth and concerns over inflation. The episode also delves into the topic of deflation, explaining why it can stifle economic growth and innovation, and how it impacts savings and debt. Future discussions on tariffs and market responses are teased for the next episode.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:24 Trump's Address and Market Reaction 01:10 Economic Indicators and Job Data 02:09 Q&A: Understanding Deflation 03:31 Conclusion and Upcoming Topics
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.4 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Wednesday, March 5th. Brian Saitel is with you here in our West Palm Beach, Florida office. |
| 0:26.7 | On a bit of a reprieve here in markets over the last couple days, certainly last week, a week and a half. |
| 0:28.7 | We got markets that were up in the morning. |
| 0:35.7 | They actually gave back all of that and were meaningfully lower mid-morning and then have recovered here towards the close. |
| 0:39.4 | This is following Trump's address and testimony in front of Congress in his speech last night where he went over the success of his first 43 days |
| 0:44.3 | in office and some of the agenda items. And I think this morning, the market was essentially |
| 0:49.2 | trying to digest what was a whole lot of different things coming at it at the same time. And you had some volatility around that. |
| 0:56.0 | But nonetheless, it seems to be a bit of a positive day overall. |
| 1:00.0 | You did get rates up a little bit today. |
| 1:03.0 | That was six basis points on tens. |
| 1:05.0 | Red Run 426 level. |
| 1:07.0 | There's still about 75 basis points of rate cuts now priced in to the market before |
| 1:13.1 | the end of the year. That was as low as 25 basis points previously. And we've gotten some |
| 1:18.2 | slowing and weaker growth numbers here as of late. And that's the reason why. Today, by the way, |
| 1:23.8 | we had ADP private rate payrolls that missed expectations meaningfully by half. |
| 1:30.0 | We were expecting about 150, we got about 77,000 in private sector jobs. |
| 1:35.7 | We'll have a better number with non-farm payrolls out at the end of the week. |
| 1:40.5 | But some job volatility there on employment. |
| 1:43.2 | We did get some ISM services data though though, that was quite better than expected. |
| 1:46.8 | And this was the first time since October of 22, where you had new orders, |
| 1:51.7 | supplier deliveries, and employment, all in expansion territory. |
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