Wednesday - June 17, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 17 June 2026
⏱️ 8 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
David Bahnsen recaps a major market day following the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, where the Fed left rates unchanged but offered a notably brief statement with little forward guidance. The dot plot implied higher rates ahead, though Warsh declined to submit his own projection, reinforcing his opposition to forward guidance as a policy tool. In his first press conference, Warsh announced five task forces covering Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, and emphasized focusing on what data says about the economy rather than predicting the Fed’s reaction. Markets sold off: the Dow swung from +280 to close -500, the S&P fell 1.25%, and the Nasdaq more than 1.25%, alongside a yield-curve flattening with short rates up far more than the 10-year. All 11 S&P sectors ended down.
00:00 Welcome and Setup
00:10 Fed Meeting Recap
01:14 Dot Plot and Guidance
01:55 Five Fed Task Forces
02:44 Reaction Function Critique
04:17 Market Selloff and Yields
05:29 Sector Performance Breakdown
06:02 Economic Data Check
06:26 Wrap Up and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:11.7 | Hello and welcome to the Dividend Cafe's daily recap. This is David Bonson filling in for my partner, Brian Saitel, out of the country with his family. |
| 0:23.2 | And we had a major day to day in markets as the very first FOMC meeting completed with |
| 0:31.0 | Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman. |
| 0:34.1 | FOMC is, of course, the Federal Open Market Committee. |
| 0:40.4 | And as was totally 100% completely known and expected, the Fed did not change interest rates, either raising or cutting. |
| 0:47.9 | But we all waited with bated breath for what the announcement would be. And the announcement, which we assume will be, |
| 0:57.5 | part of the new Fed regime under Chairman Warsh, was really short and really simple and really |
| 1:05.9 | lacking in forward guidance. And Warsh did, I'm not saying this tongue in cheek, he did reiterate that this is all |
| 1:14.2 | by design. The line that stuck out to me was that this committee will deliver price stability, |
| 1:22.4 | in his first ever press conference. They went forward with a dot plot where the Fed governors said |
| 1:30.6 | their expectations for future rates, all of which indicated higher rates into the future, |
| 1:36.1 | but Chairman Warsh himself confirmed that he declined to give a projection for this dot plot. |
| 1:45.2 | It would be hard to interpret almost anything done or said today, anything other than hawkishly, |
| 1:51.3 | although I think that there's a really interesting nuance in Warsh's declining to provide a |
| 1:58.2 | projection, and I believe it reaffirms his strong opposition to using forward |
| 2:04.8 | guidance as a policy tool. But what Warsh did do in the press conference today was say that |
| 2:10.7 | he was appointing five task forces, one around the Federal Reserve's communications, |
| 2:28.3 | a second around the balance sheet of the Fed, the quantitative easing and tightening, and the large amount of bonds the Fed holds on its balance sheet. Number three, the Fed's reliance on data sources for a task force on productivity and jobs. |
| 2:36.0 | I think he is very interested in potential productivity enhancements that may come |
| 2:42.0 | in this technologically transformative moment and the impact on labor. |
| 2:47.0 | And then number five, the inflation frameworks that the Fed is using or has been using. |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.