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The Dividend Cafe

Wednesday - February 26, 2025

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Wealth Management, Monetary Policy, Retirement Planning, Estate Planning, Dividend Growth Investing, Business, Macro Economics, Investing

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 26 February 2025

⏱️ 6 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Market Reactions and Legislative Updates - February 26th

In the February 26th edition of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the mixed trading day, noting the Dow's decline, the S&P's flat performance, and the NASDAQ's modest increase. He explains how initial market optimism waned following the House passing a budget reconciliation resolution, which includes significant spending cuts and debt limit increases. Szytel also addresses a viewer's question about the Mar-a-Lago accord and its impact on investors, clarifying it as a negotiation tool for currency rates. Lastly, he touches on the disappointing new home sales data for January, attributing the decline to high interest rates.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:56 House Resolution and Market Reactions 01:30 Details of the Resolution 02:02 Ask TPG: Mar-a-Lago Accord 03:11 Economic Calendar and Housing Market 03:58 Conclusion and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:12.4

Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Wednesday, February the 26th. Brian Saitel is with you here. On a mixed trading day, the actually somewhat of the opposite

0:22.2

of the last two days where the Dow was down 188 points. S&P was flat and NASDAQ was up a quarter of a

0:28.1

percent. So a bit of the reverse of what has been a rotation from growth and overvaluation to more

0:34.4

value-oriented stocks came undone a little bit today, but really it was just

0:38.1

a flat day overall. We were up earlier in the trading session, and a lot of it was to do with

0:43.8

the GOP passing resolution in a budget reconciliation last night that had markets

0:51.5

upbeat in the morning. And then that sort of just fizzled for the rest of the day

0:54.7

as the trading market went on. The tenure ended up closing down another four basis points of the day.

1:00.2

So we're at four and a quarter on tens. So a pretty decent move lower and yields across the board

1:06.3

here the last three or so weeks. So let's talk about this resolution that has gone through the House

1:12.2

of Representatives. It still needs to go to the Senate. It was a very close vote in the House. It was

1:17.3

217 to 215. It was really only thought to be one vote difference. And so they were able to sway a few

1:25.0

others, but at least on the GOP side.

1:44.6

The Senate, however, will be a little bit more challenging, so this is far from over. And I think the market essentially priced in some good news in the morning and then unpriced it in towards the latter half of the afternoon because this is still a very arduous process and far from being completed yet. But let's take a look at it. It features a one and a half trillion dollar floor for spending cuts, a four and a half trillion dollar ceiling on the deficit

1:48.9

impact of the tax cuts and jobs act extension. So not making that permanent, but extending it.

1:55.2

The Senate wants to see it permanent. So that there'll be some of these sticking points.

1:59.0

There was a $300 billion outlay for additional spending at the border in defense and a $4 trillion

2:04.9

debt limit increase in this.

2:08.2

So off to the Senate it goes.

2:09.7

More to come on that.

2:10.6

I know David has written some about it, and I'm sure we'll write more on it.

...

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