Wednesday - February 18, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 18 February 2026
⏱️ 7 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Brian Szytel from Dividend Cafe provides a broad market update with all three major stock indices higher (Nasdaq up about 0.75%, S&P 500 up about 0.5%, and Dow up about 0.25%) while interest rates rose slightly, with the 10-year yield up three basis points. He reviews several economic releases, including January FOMC minutes that conveyed a more hawkish tone as inflation was described as slower to return to the 2% target, January industrial production that beat expectations (0.7% vs. 0.4%), and December durable goods orders that fell 1.4% but were better than consensus, with underlying measures stronger (excluding transportation up 0.9%, and core capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft up about 0.67%, roughly double expectations). He notes housing starts and building permits were slightly better than expected but characterizes housing as still stuck due to interest rates, tax law changes, and reduced post-COVID mobility.
00:00 Market Snapshot: Stocks Up, Yields Higher
00:35 Key Economic Releases: Fed Minutes, Production & Durable Goods
01:41 Why Durable Goods Matter: Business Confidence & Capex Signals
02:40 Housing Starts & Permits: Still Stuck in a Range
03:10 Tariffs and GDP Explained: Net Exports, Double-Counting, and Reality
04:47 What’s Next This Week: PCE, GDP, PMIs & Consumer Sentiment
05:12 Wrap-Up: Broadly Positive Day + Q&A Invitation
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Sightel from our Newport Beach, California office here, TBGHQ, On basically a broad upday in markets, modestly |
| 0:24.9 | so, you had all three stock indices up. You actually had a larger move higher in some of the |
| 0:30.9 | tech sectors, like the NASDAQ, for example, which was up about three quarters of a percent. The |
| 0:36.2 | S&P was up half of a percent. Dow was up about a quarter of a percent. The S&P was up half of a percent. |
| 0:38.3 | Dow was up about a quarter of a percent across the board there. |
| 0:42.2 | And you had interest rates that were slightly higher on the yield curve, |
| 0:44.8 | so 10-year moved up three basis points on the day. |
| 0:47.7 | So quite a bit of economic news out on the day, |
| 0:51.1 | and that's what I'll go through and spend most of the time on today. |
| 0:53.9 | There was one, two, three, four pieces out to, that were of note. One of them was the FOMC minutes from January. This is the last Fed meeting where they held rates steady. There was more of a hawkish tone in the minutes, citing that inflation was slower to move back to their 2% target. We did get jobs numbers after |
| 1:12.0 | that report, so keep that in mind. Some of these things can change month to month, but somewhat more |
| 1:18.0 | hawkish tone there. You had industrial production for the month of January. This is a non-delayed |
| 1:23.5 | report, actually, a fresh, relevant one that was better than expected. We got a 0.7 versus a 0.4 on the month, |
| 1:31.2 | which was good. And then you had durable goods orders that were down for the month of December. This is |
| 1:37.4 | actually slightly delayed, but they were down 1.4% for the month of December. It was actually better than |
| 1:42.6 | consensus. We thought they'd be down about two. But if you strip out a little more volatile sectors and cyclical stuff like transportation, for example, they were actually up 0.9% on the month, better than expected. So all that to say, what does it mean? Durable goods orders are big things, expensive things that are important because they're a leading |
| 2:01.7 | indicator because you buy those big expensive things like machinery and aircraft and vehicles and |
| 2:07.1 | equipment to produce stuff for a long period of time. And they're bigger investment. So if you're |
| 2:12.7 | doing that, gives a high level of business confidence, gives you a high level of activity and output and |
| 2:19.0 | economic growth that you can look into. So we look at those things pretty carefully. If you |
| 2:23.5 | start to peel back that onion a little bit on durable goods, if you looked at like core capital |
... |
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