Wednesday - February 12, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 12 February 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Mid-Week Market Insights: CPI Report & Federal Reserve Review - Feb 12
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on February 12th, host Brian Szytel covers the day's market activities influenced by the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The Dow dropped 225 points, the S&P was down by a quarter of a percent, while the Nasdaq saw a minor gain. The CPI numbers showed a monthly increase of 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.3%, marking a yearly CPI of 3%. The core CPI excluding food and energy also surpassed expectations. Energy and food prices along with the shelter component significantly impacted the CPI. Szytel discusses the Federal Reserve's ongoing efforts to manage inflation, noting the bond market's reaction and Fed Chairman Powell's testimony. The role of the Fed, particularly its expanded balance sheet since the Great Financial Crisis and COVID-19, is critiqued. Szytel concludes with a forward-looking perspective and invites viewers to tune in the next day for more updates.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:32 Inflation Report Breakdown 01:15 Impact on Energy and Food Prices 01:26 Shelter Component Analysis 02:05 Market Reactions and Predictions 03:21 Federal Reserve's Role and Actions 04:51 Conclusion and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. |
| 0:15.0 | This is Wednesday, February the 12th, Brian Saitel with you here on a inflation CPI reporting day here in the market. |
| 0:24.1 | We ended up closing off of the lows for the day, but the Dow was still down about 225 points. |
| 0:31.4 | S&P was down just about a quarter of a percentage point, and the NASDAQ actually eeked out a minuscule tiny six point gain. |
| 0:39.1 | Not all that bad of a reaction in the market for what was otherwise a bit hotter number |
| 0:45.4 | on inflation. |
| 0:46.1 | We got on headline CPI a 0.5% month over month increase. |
| 0:52.1 | Consensus was only for 0.3. |
| 0:57.3 | It's a pretty big difference. And that puts year over year at 3% versus a consensus at 2.9. It's only about a 10th difference on the year. |
| 1:03.4 | On core, if you move out energy and food, core CPI was also hotter up 0.4% for the month. Consensus was only 0.3. So just a 10th more on core, |
| 1:16.6 | but that put annualized core inflation at 3.3 versus consensus for 3.2. Okay, so a bit hotter |
| 1:24.9 | numbers. What was in them and why? Mainly two things. One was as you could tell between the difference between headline and core with energy and food in it is that energy and food were a little bit higher. Energy was up 1.1% food was up 0.4%. But the bigger picture or the bigger number inside of these that move the needle was this continued shelter component, which we've spoken about for about a year now. |
| 1:49.9 | The rent in OER, which is owner's equivalent rent that is used inside of CPI represented about a third of the number. |
| 1:57.2 | It's still higher than what is reality and rents are not increasing at four and a half |
| 2:02.2 | 5% a year. There's something in the three, three and a half percent range. It's just a lagging |
| 2:06.9 | calculation and so it hasn't caught up yet. I suspect that it will and of course that should |
| 2:12.6 | bring down inflation and at least that's our thesis. If you get volatility around energy, |
| 2:17.1 | of course that that'll affect |
| 2:18.0 | headline, but corn nonetheless should trend lower. And by the way, on the year numbers, we were only |
| 2:23.7 | over by about a tenth on each. So I suppose it isn't that astronomical. Markets were down much more |
| 2:29.7 | in the morning. The bond market particularly was down. The 10-year Treasury was off or was up, sorry, |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.