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The Dividend Cafe

Wednesday - April 22, 2026

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Business, Retirement Planning, Dividend Growth Investing, Estate Planning, Monetary Policy, Wealth Management, Macro Economics, Investing

4.9 • 569 Ratings

🗓️ 22 April 2026

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Brian Szytel from Dividend Cafe recaps a broad market rally with the Dow up 340 points, S&P up 1%, and Nasdaq up 1.6%, led by prior momentum/AI, semiconductors, and crypto, following a ceasefire extension announcement from the Trump administration. He notes oil also rose, suggesting energy markets aren’t pricing a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while investors shift back toward strong fundamentals: ~18% expected year-over-year EPS growth, record-high margins near 19%+, and a lower S&P multiple (~20.5 vs. ~22–23 earlier), implying upside if multiples revert. With no economic data released, he addresses a question on early-20th-century dividend yields, arguing the Great Depression’s profit collapse—not taxes—drove dividend cuts, and that strong free-cash-flow companies can sustain dividend growth through macro shocks.

00:00 Market Rally Recap

00:50 Ceasefire and Oil Signals

01:26 Earnings Growth and Tech Margins

02:30 Valuations and Upside Risk

04:13 No Economic Data Today

04:24 Dividend Yields History Lesson

05:00 Depression Era Dividend Cuts

05:41 Postwar Shift and Nifty Fifty

06:45 Wrap Up and Qs

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:12.1

Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel, your host this evening here from our West Palm Beach, Florida office.

0:20.2

Here in a bright sunny day, both outside

0:22.3

of my office and in the markets. We had a rally across the board, when I say across the board,

0:27.1

pretty much across the board. Stocks, bonds, oil, the precious metals, dollar, pretty much

0:33.6

everything was up on the day. Dow ended up closing 340 points higher, S&P was up a percent.

0:39.9

NASDAQ was up about a 1.6 percent. So this was the opposite of the rotation that I wrote about yesterday,

0:45.5

where you had a big outsized performance in sort of the momentum names from last year. I think of all

0:50.7

the AI names, the semiconductors, the chips, that mostly technology companies,

0:55.7

a lot of the crypto stuff was up today. So all the shiny objects from yesteryear were up a lot today

1:00.7

and let the good times roll there. So that's what you had in markets and the reason was because of

1:04.9

the ceasefire announcement or the extension of it, moreover last night from the Trump administration.

1:10.6

So there actually

1:11.6

wasn't a timeline put on it. And also because the oil market was up on the day, so he had a

1:16.9

big rally in stocks, but oil was also up. So it tells me a couple things. One, I don't think the

1:21.5

oil markets are pricing in a near-term resolution and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz anytime

1:26.4

soon.

1:32.8

And then second, the market really is looking to move on from just being engrossed in geopolitics alone and start to focus on the actual fundamentals.

1:36.1

Because they're actually quite good, and the things that I'll point out I've mentioned before,

1:40.7

but we're now at a new number of EPS growth estimated for year over year, which is about 18%.

1:47.0

So that's super robust.

1:48.6

Historically, the long-term average is closer to seven.

...

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