Wednesday - April 15, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 15 April 2026
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Brian Szytel recaps an up day in markets amid a V-shaped recovery, with the S&P closing up 0.8% at new highs, the Nasdaq up 1.5% in a tech-led rally, and the Dow down 72 points; the 10-year yield rose about three basis points to 4.28%. He notes markets are increasingly pricing in some resolution to the U.S.–Iran situation as a blockade takes effect and negotiations progress. Sector moves included strength in AI/tech/software and a rebound in asset managers. Economic data showed continued housing weakness as the NAHB index fell to 34 (vs. 37 expected) and transactions remain slow despite builder incentives, while the Empire State manufacturing index surprised positively (11 vs. -0.5) and import prices were better than expected (0.8 vs. 2.4). He also discusses Ken Rogoff’s book on deficits, arguing excessive debt is ultimately deflationary.
00:00 Market Rally Recap
00:33 Ceasefire and Iran Talks
01:07 Tech and Asset Managers Surge
01:27 Housing Data Turns Weaker
02:22 Manufacturing and Import Prices
03:12 Debt Deficits and Inflation Debate
04:54 Closing Thoughts and Outlook
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel, your host this evening. |
| 0:16.0 | Another update here in markets overall, which is nice to see here. We've really been on quite a V-shaped recovery. |
| 0:22.2 | The S&P actually did move above 7,000 and made some at least intraday new highs. |
| 0:28.7 | In fact, actually closed there. We closed up on the S&P. 0.8%. |
| 0:32.9 | Dow was down 72 points there, and the NASDAQ was up a percent and a half. |
| 0:37.4 | So this is a much more |
| 0:38.5 | tech-led rally that we've seen here the last few days. Interest rates were up about three basis |
| 0:43.6 | points on the 10 year, which is now at 428. So tens, and pretty much all rates across the board, |
| 0:48.7 | have been pretty steady in most of this. But you've got a blockade now in effect, and largely we're feeling a little bit better about the efficacy of it, |
| 0:57.6 | just since it's moving the ball down the field in negotiation with Iran between the U.S. and Iran, |
| 1:03.1 | and also markets are pretty assuredly at this point pricing them some sort of a resolution. |
| 1:08.2 | I wrote about that a little bit yesterday, and David elaborated on it a little bit today. There's lots of different things that can change the direction in this, so it's too early to really call it, but we like what we're seeing so far. And there's been a big rally in some of the technology names, a lot of the AI, the tech, some of the software, especially. And then you've also seen a big rebound in the asset managers. |
| 1:29.1 | Most of those two things, like I said yesterday, are somewhat tied together. You have recovery and |
| 1:33.5 | software, which is the private credit component that was most underloved and those two things seem to |
| 1:38.7 | be tethered. The other piece out today was really about housing and some of the weakness that we've seen. |
| 1:45.3 | Today we got an NAHB housing market index. |
| 1:49.0 | This is like a confidence index basically on housing from the home builders. |
| 1:53.9 | Much lower than expected. |
| 1:55.6 | Number was 34 instead of a 37, which was usually somewhat arbitrary or sounding for most. But just housing remains to |
| 2:02.4 | be stuck. There really isn't much transaction going on and on the new building side. Home builders |
| 2:07.5 | have been incentivizing either lower rates through their loan programs to try to incentivize buyers. |
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