We Were Right: Kaiser and Jeremy Reunite to Riff on the China Vibe Shift
Sinica Podcast
Kaiser Kuo
4.7 • 710 Ratings
🗓️ 11 November 2025
⏱️ 54 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
This week on Sinica, I welcome back Jeremy Goldkorn, co-founder of the show and my longtime co-host, to revisit the "vibe shift" we first discussed back in February. Seven months on, what we sensed then has fully borne out — there's been a measurable softening in American attitudes toward China, reflected not just in polling data but in media coverage, podcast discussions, and public discourse. We dig into what's driving this shift: the chaos of American politics making China look competent by comparison, the end of Wolf Warrior diplomacy, the gutting of China hawks in the Trump administration, Trump's own transactional G2 enthusiasm, and the generational divide in how younger Americans encounter China through TikTok rather than legacy media. We also discuss the limits of this shift, the dangers of overcorrection, and what it feels like to watch the fever break after years of panic and absolutism in U.S.-China discourse.
5:29 – The [beep] show in America as the biggest factor
8:38 – China hawks deflated: from Pompeo to Navarro's pivot to India
11:21 – Ben Smith's piece on the end of a decade of China hawkism
13:30 – Eric Schmidt and Selina Xu's Atlantic piece on tech decoupling
17:17 – Long-form China podcasts: Dwarkesh Patel with Arthur Kroeber, Lex Fridman with Keyu Jin
19:35 – Jeremy's personal vibe shift: distance from The China Project and renewed perspective
23:33 – The world turning to predictability and stability
26:05 – The Chicago Council poll: dramatic shift away from containment
29:09 – The generational shift: TikTok, infrastructure porn, and Gen Z's globalized worldview
31:15 – The end of Wolf Warrior diplomacy and why it mattered
37:03 – Kaiser's "Great Reckoning" essay and why it didn't get the usual hate
39:00 – The destruction of Twitter and the vicious China discourse culture
41:10 – The pendulum swinging too far: China fanboys and new hubris
43:20 – How the vibe shift looks from inside China
Paying it forward: Echo Tang (Berlin Independent Chinese Film Festival organizer) and Zhu Rikun (New York Chinese Independent Film Festival organizer)
Recommendations:
Jeremy: Ja No Man: Growing Up in Apartheid Era South Africa by Richard Poplak
Kaiser: Rhyming Chaos podcast with Jeremy Goldkorn and Maria Repnikova
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Cynical Podcast, the weekly discussion of current affairs in China. |
| 0:13.0 | In this program, we look at books, ideas, new research, intellectual currents, and cultural trends |
| 0:18.3 | that can help us better understand what's happening in China's politics, foreign relations, economics, and society. Join me each week for in-depth |
| 0:26.1 | conversations that shed more light and bring less heat to how we think and talk about China. |
| 0:32.2 | I'm Kaiser Guo coming to you this week for my home in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. |
| 0:36.6 | Cynica is supported this year by the Center for East Asian Studies at the University |
| 0:39.8 | of Wisconsin-Madison, a National Resource Center for the Study of East Asia. |
| 0:44.1 | The Cynica podcast will remain free, but if you work for an organization that believes |
| 0:48.8 | in what I'm doing with the show and with the newsletter, please consider lending your support. |
| 0:53.2 | I am in dire need of more institutional |
| 0:55.2 | support. You can reach me at Cinecapod at gmail.com. So do reach out. And listeners, you can do |
| 1:02.3 | your part by supporting my work as a paying subscriber at Cinecapodcast.com. You will enjoy, in addition |
| 1:09.0 | to the show, the complete transcript of it, essays from me, as well as writings and podcasts, from some of your favorite China-focused columnists and commentators. |
| 1:17.6 | And, of course, you will bask in the glow of knowing that you are helping Kaiser do what he honestly believes is very important work. |
| 1:25.0 | So do check out that page to see all that is on offer and |
| 1:28.2 | consider helping out. Look, there's no other way to say this. We were right. Back in February, |
| 1:34.3 | Jeremy Goldcorn, this show's co-founder and longtime co-host, was back on the show to talk about |
| 1:38.9 | the palpable shift that we sensed was underway and how Americans viewed China, not necessarily in the policies |
| 1:46.1 | themselves, but really in the tone, in the mood, in the framing of the relationship, the vibe. |
| 1:51.9 | This was, you know, right on the aftermath of the deep seek moment in January. |
| 1:56.4 | After the TikTok refugees on Xiaoheng Shu in January as well, you probably remember all that well. |
| 2:01.9 | But, you know, seven months out, I think we're ready to say that our intuition back then |
... |
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