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The Breakdown

Was the Jumbo Rate Cut "Normalization" or Signs of Trouble Ahead?

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8806 Ratings

🗓️ 20 September 2024

⏱️ 15 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The rate cutting cycle has finally arrived and Powell et al went for 50bps. In today's episode, NLW explores how much the decision was about rate normalization vs. brewing economic weakness Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto Subscribe to the newsletter: https://breakdown.beehiiv.com/ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

0:09.3

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

0:18.2

What's going on, guys? It is Thursday, September 19th, and today, you better believe, we are talking

0:23.6

about that jumbo rate cut. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown,

0:27.9

please go, subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into

0:31.5

the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod.

0:42.9

Well, friends, after more than a year of holding rates high, the Federal Reserve has delivered their first rate cut. For the past month, it's been clear the cutting cycle would begin at this

0:47.8

FOMC meeting. The question then was how large the cut would be. Sure enough, when push came to

0:53.2

shove, the Fed kicked off the

0:54.5

easing cycle with a jumbo-sized 50 basis point cut. The last time the first rate cut was larger

1:00.1

than normal was in September 2007, as the first dominoes began to fall in the global financial

1:04.6

crisis. The Fed funds rate is now in a range between 4.75 and 5%. Chair Jerome Powell went to pains in order to frame these cuts as completely normal and no reason for alarm.

1:15.4

Presenting the rate decision, he said it, quote, reflects our growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance,

1:21.6

strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%.

1:27.1

There always seems to be a word with each Fed meeting, and this Fed meeting's word of the day

1:31.1

was recalibration. Powell explained the Fed's intention was to slowly recalibrate rates out of

1:36.8

restrictive territory. Part of the language decision was coming from the fact that many had been

1:41.2

concerned that a double cut would spook markets, with traders

1:44.2

wondering if the Fed knew something that they didn't. Powell made it clear that the only thing

1:48.1

that he's seen is that rates are too high to allow for a strong economy, and it's now appropriate

1:52.5

to bring them down. In other words, he used the language of a soft landing even if those words

1:57.1

specifically were not used. The cuts were presented as policy normalization rather than

...

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