Was Q3 GDP Rigged Just In Time For The Election? Ep. 206
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
Peter Schiff
4.6 • 5.9K Ratings
🗓️ 29 October 2016
⏱️ 36 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
* Yesterday we finally got the release of the initial estimate for Q4 GDP
* The Atlanta Fed had originally come out with an estimate of about 3.8 and had steadily reduced their estimate
* They got down as low as 1.9 before ratcheting it up a couple of times and their estimate was at 2.1 when we got the official release
* And the number came out at 2.9; not only much higher than Atlanta Fed's estimate, but much higher than the consensus forecast at 2.5
* I am very suspicious of this number
* This is the strongest number in over 2 years and it comes out less than 2 weeks before the election
* Of course one of Donald Trump's issues has been the weak GDP growth, which has averaged just 1% for the last 3 quarters
* All of a sudden it's 2/9?
* Does anybody really believe that suddenly the U.S. economy in the fall of 2016 was 3 times as strong as the last 3 quarters?
* I dont' think so. I don't believe that for a second
* I do believe that after the election when we get the revisions we will get a downward revision to this number
* But, even if this number were real; even if it holds up
* If you average the last 4 quarters to get the entire year, looking back, you're just below 1.5% for the entire year, which is still extremely weak growth
* Once you look beneath the surface of this 2.9, it's very easy to see how they rigged it, to use Donald Trump's expression
* Not that it's some kind of a conspiracy
* Look at these numbers - there was a 10% spike in exports - this the biggest gain in exports in 3 years
* It's not in manufactured products that we're exporting, where you've got some high-paying jobs
* It was primarily let by a one-time surge in soybean exports
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | The Peter Ship Show. |
| 0:09.9 | Well yesterday we finally got the release of the initial estimate for the third quarter |
| 0:16.7 | GDP and that is the GDP estimate which the Atlanta Fed had originally come out at about |
| 0:23.2 | 3.8 early on and they had steadily reduced their estimate. |
| 0:28.0 | They got down to as low as 1.9 before rationing it off a couple of times and their estimate |
| 0:34.8 | was at 2.1 when we got the official release and the number came out at 2.9 not only much |
| 0:43.2 | higher than what the Atlanta Fed had been estimating but much higher than the consensus forecast |
| 0:50.5 | which had been 2.5. |
| 0:52.1 | Now I am very suspicious of this number. |
| 0:56.0 | This is the strongest number in over two years and it comes out less than two weeks before |
| 1:03.2 | the election and of course one of the issues Donald Trump has had has been the weak GDP |
| 1:08.5 | growth which has averaged just 1% for the last three quarters. |
| 1:14.4 | All of a sudden it is 2.9 and the triple does anybody really believe that suddenly the |
| 1:20.3 | US economy in the fall of 2015 all of a sudden was 3 times as strong as it has been for |
| 1:29.4 | the last three quarters. |
| 1:30.4 | I don't think so. |
| 1:31.4 | I don't believe that for a second and I do believe that after the election when we get |
| 1:37.2 | the revisions we will get a downward revision to this number but even if this number were |
| 1:43.0 | real and even if it holds up if you average the last four to get the entire year looking |
| 1:51.6 | back you are still barely at 1.5% you are just below 1.5% for the entire year which is |
| 1:59.3 | still extremely weak growth. |
| 2:03.5 | But once you look beneath the surface of this 2.9 it is very easy to see how they rigged |
... |
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