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This Day

War Stories: The Vietnam Draft Lottery Gets Exposed (1970)

This Day

Jody Avirgan & Radiotopia

History

4.6982 Ratings

🗓️ 19 May 2024

⏱️ 29 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In the runup to Memorial Day, we're bringing you some stories from the archives about war and the cost of war. We'll be back with new episodes next week!

It’s January 7th. In 1970, the New York Times published an article with the headline “Statisticians Charge Draft Lottery Was Not Random.”

Jody and Niki are joined by data reporter Walt Hickey to talk about how statistical analysis exposed that people born in December were more likely to be selected for the Vietnam War draft than those born in January, and what that tells us about randomness, trust, and more.

Walt’s most recent book is “You Are What You Watch” — check it out now!

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Our team: Jacob Feldman, Researcher/Producer; Brittani Brown, Producer; Khawla Nakua, Transcripts; music by Teen Daze and Blue Dot Sessions; Audrey Mardavich is our Executive Producer at Radiotopia

This Day In Esoteric Political History is produced by Jody Avirgan’s Roulette Productions.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Hey everyone Jody here over the next week or so we're bringing you a few of our favorite episodes from the archives

0:06.1

Some people might call them reruns but we like to call them favorite episodes from the archives

0:10.9

But in the run-up to Memorial Day, we thought we'd bring you some stories about war and

0:16.0

the cost of war.

0:18.0

We'll be back with new episodes soon, including some conversations about Kelly's brand new book, some more election-related coverage and of course a bunch of stories

0:25.8

that we are excited to talk about. In the meantime enjoy these episodes and

0:29.7

don't forget to sign up for the newsletter at this day pod.com for lots more.

0:34.8

Hello and welcome to this day in esoteric political history from Radiotopia.

0:41.6

My name is Jody Avergan.

0:45.0

This day January 1970, an article appears in the New York Times with the headline,

0:52.0

Statisticians Charge Draft Lottery was not random.

0:56.4

The article laid out how an analysis of the Vietnam War draft lottery,

1:00.1

which was intended to be a random drawing according to birth date,

1:03.4

while that drawing disproportionately picked, for instance, men born in January over men born in December.

1:09.6

Obviously the consequences of this, the implications of this were huge, it tapped into a big

1:14.7

conversation about the draft itself, those who were in the sample to be drawn in that lottery

1:19.7

and those who had avoided it and also in interesting ways this was a big moment for

1:24.1

statisticians we got an email from a listener Thomas about this and Thomas wrote

1:28.1

us I'm quoting here I'm not sure if you've done something on the Vietnam draft

1:31.9

but this is a rather minor

1:33.2

nerdy and esoteric event that could provide a hook into the fairness of the

1:37.4

draft and Thomas I'll just say you get the show with an email like that.

...

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