Wall Street MISSED this trade | Steve Hou

Full Signal

Phil Rosen

Investing, Business

4.8 • 18 Ratings

🗓️ 19 February 2026

⏱️ 41 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Steve Hou is a quantitative researcher at Bloomberg covering multi-asset strategy research and holds a PhD in financial economics. He joined Phil Rosen to discuss the US-China AI arms race, how investors can position for the shifting world order, stock market performance in Latin America, South Korea and South Africa, and much more.

This episode is sponsored by Public: https://public.com/openingbell

Subscribe to Opening Bell Daily: https://www.openingbelldailynews.com/subscribe

Follow Phil on X: https://x.com/philrosenn

Follow Phil on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/philrosen/

Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:49 - Why 2026 Is the Year Geopolitics Becomes ‘Macro’

4:25 - Who’s Winning So Far

9:06 - US vs China Risk & Camp Exposure

11:35 - Do Fundamentals Still Matter?

15:47 - Picking Sides vs Owning Both

20:54 - Policy Risk - What Happens After Trump?

23:31- Managed Decoupling & Volatility Cycles

26:05 - Currencies & Returns

31:15 - Do Winners Keep Winning?

37:06- AI Arms Race: No ‘Winner,’ Just a Long Marathon

40:27 - Where to Find Steve’s Research

Disclosure: Brokerage services provided by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Investing involves risk. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at public.com/disclosures/ga. See terms of Match Program at https://public.com/disclosures/matchprogram Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time.

#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	What's up guys? On this episode of Full Signal, Steve Howe from Bloomberg is back.
0:04.2	He is a quant researcher and he breaks down his new geopolitical framework for thinking about macro
0:09.9	investing and strategies for the new year. This is a fantastic playbook about US-China decoupling,
0:15.8	what it means for portfolio strategy and much more. I think you're going to love this conversation.
0:22.2	Steve, great to see you. You've been doing a lot of work on the macro outlook and how
0:26.9	geopolitics has become a bigger and bigger factor for investors and for the framework of just
0:33.3	viewing the world. Can you walk us through your thesis for 2026 because it's very nuanced and
0:39.6	frankly, I don't want to try to repeat it and risk getting something wrong. Well, thank you very
0:44.5	much, Phil, for having you back. And it's always great catching up with you. Yeah, indeed. So I've been
0:52.2	looking a lot at geopolitics, you know, as a core theme for 2026, and I wrote with my
0:58.5	colleagues at Bloomberg, an economic outlook for 2026, in particular for equities, and I also
1:04.6	have a sort of a longer, more expanded version that I have posted on my X account.
1:11.3	And I make the argument that 2026 is the year when geopolitics, which is always something
1:16.9	that's been with us, is becoming a first order factor that it is becoming macro itself,
1:23.4	whereas traditionally, you know, we will follow macro through the lens of traditional macro,
1:28.4	cyclical, you know, sort of variables, how the market.
1:32.0	Inflation or growth.
1:33.0	Inflation, labor market growth, and what have you.
1:36.0	I think this year is becoming increasingly clear the various megatrans, you know, are lining
1:41.8	such that they are all projecting and imposing with geopolitics.
1:47.4	And one thing you point out is that there's an idea of a reordering in camps.
1:53.8	Can you explain that a bit more?
	...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Previous episode | Next episode

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Phil Rosen, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Phil Rosen and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.