Voting Battles Head to Court

Advisory Opinions

The Dispatch

News, Government, Politics

4.7 • 4K Ratings

🗓️ 29 October 2020

⏱️ 65 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

We’ve already seen record early turnout this election cycle. Our hosts have three major takeaways from the surge: 1) It means the polls are more likely to be accurate (the registered voter number is likely to reflect the actual voter number), 2) It means that we’re going to see interesting shift in how both candidates’ spend time on the campaign trail before Tuesday, 3) It means we have a record number of absentee ballots, which will lead to a concomitant surge in election litigation. In the hopper for the rest of today’s podcast: judicial oaths of office, turnout in swing states, and election litigation galore (with a close look at Wisconsin and Pennsylvania!) Show Notes: -Join The Dispatch for a post-election gathering featuring congressional leadership and top policy experts November 9-10: Sign up here! -Marquette Law poll on voters’ optimism that their preferred candidate will win, Wednesday’s Morning Dispatch: “Election Litigationpalooza,” a statement on the Pennsylvania ballot deadline litigation from Justices Alito, Gorsuch, and Thomas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	You ready?
0:02.0	I was born ready.
0:04.0	Welcome to the Advisory Opinions Podcast. This is David French with Sarah Isger. And this is not the last podcast before the election that will occur Monday. And Monday, Sarah, we're going to have to give our definitive
0:33.0	predictions.
0:35.0	That's a terrible idea. We can only be wrong.
0:39.0	It's a tremendous idea. It's tremendous because there's a chance we could be right.
0:44.0	You got to look at it from the...
0:46.0	You're like that guy with the draft Kings fantasy football. He had one a million dollars. And then they like recalled one of the plays in the Bears game and said it was
0:55.0	what a incomplete instead of a fumble or something. And then he lost a million dollars.
1:03.0	Now, how am I like that guy?
1:05.0	I don't know. You just are. No, like you make a prediction. Like there's some very exceedingly small chance you could hit it all right. But the much more likely is that you'll get it wrong.
1:16.0	Well, I mean, obviously I'll get the precise. I think that what we're talking about is, OK, generally a matter of scale.
1:25.0	So is it, you know, so if I have a an electoral college map that is something like say the 96 scale victory that the Democrats had over the Republicans, even if I get say Arizona wrong, I'm going to be mostly right.
1:42.0	So if you predict a 2016 style Trump victory, even if you might get Wisconsin wrong, you're still going to be mostly right. So this is where close matters. This is like horseshoes and hand grenades.
1:54.0	So last on Monday, you said that turnout was at 65 million and you wanted to predict turnout today. I predicted 70. You predicted 85.
2:06.0	Yes, I went high.
2:08.0	We're at exactly a tie. Slight, slight edge to David, maybe, but it's at 78.1.
2:15.0	Oh, and just the numbers were just updated. 78.5.
2:19.0	OK, then I think I think it's leaning pretty heavily toward you because our pod just started. So congrats.
2:27.0	Well, thank you. Thank you. I, you know, I can I count. Is this an accomplishment or is this an accident?
2:33.0	Oh, definitely an accident. Oh my goodness. So how many accidental accomplishments can I have before their legitimate accomplishments?
2:40.0	Yeah, they have to be repeated repeatable. Oh, OK. Well, all right.
	...

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