Voodoo polling? Predicting the US election
More or Less
BBC
4.6 • 3.7K Ratings
🗓️ 12 November 2012
⏱️ 10 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
This week Ruth Alexander looks at the other winner the US elections. Blogger and pioneer of aggregated polling, Nate Silver, predicted the outcome of the vote in every state one better than 2008. Others who have tried similar methods have also done well. Is this the dawn of a new era of poll prediction or just luck? Also, what effect did Hurricane Sandy have on death rates in places it hit and how did they differ from a normal day.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Thank you for downloading from the BBC. |
| 0:03.0 | For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, |
| 0:07.0 | go to BBCWorldService.com slash podcasts. |
| 0:13.0 | Hello and welcome to more or less on the BBC World Service, |
| 0:17.0 | calling number misuses to account everywhere. |
| 0:20.0 | I'm Ruth Alexander. |
| 0:21.0 | This week, Nate Silver, blogger and statistics geek |
| 0:24.0 | who correctly predicted the US election results in 2008 |
| 0:28.0 | proved he wasn't a one trick pony. |
| 0:31.0 | We ask whether his methods are the way forward for calling elections |
| 0:34.0 | and Hurricane Sandy, it left a trail of destruction in its wake. |
| 0:38.0 | Good morning America, breaking news, the perfect storm. |
| 0:42.0 | Sandy brings utter devastation overnight. |
| 0:45.0 | But how did the death toll differ from an ordinary day on the east coast of America? |
| 0:50.0 | The presidential elections may have had more than one victor this month, |
| 0:54.0 | Barack Obama and Nate Silver. |
| 0:57.0 | Nate is a New York Times blogger who's famous for predicting the 2008 election. |
| 1:02.0 | Then he correctly predicted which way 49 of the 50 states would go, |
| 1:07.0 | and he got every US Senate race right too. |
| 1:10.0 | This time he's predicted 50 of the 50 US states correctly |
| 1:15.0 | and prays flowed on as diverse outlets as Fox News and The Huffington Post. |
| 1:20.0 | But this isn't magic, it's maths. |
... |
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