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Odd Lots

Viktor Shvets on Inflation and How Crypto Could Cause the Next Financial Crisis

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

Business News, News, News Commentary, Business, Investing

4.52K Ratings

🗓️ 10 May 2021

⏱️ 42 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

What will the economy really look like when things normalize? Lots of people are, of course, anticipating a sustained rise in inflation, even beyond this burst in prices right now. Our guest this week is skeptical. We speak about the new landscape with Viktor Shvets, a Managing Director at Macquarie, on why he doesn't see the disinflationary trends changing anytime soon. He also argues that the next crisis could originate in the mania for cryptocurrencies.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:39.2

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0:54.4

Hello and welcome to another episode of the Adlots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.

0:59.7

And I'm Joe Wisenthal. So Joe, we just had a fed meeting where basically the central bank

1:07.1

decided to not change anything. And the market reaction was, let's see, stocks went up,

1:14.5

but probably the most interesting move that we saw was in the three-year break even. And that

1:21.8

actually went up, I think eight basis points to the highest since 2008. So you saw this immediate

1:29.8

assumption in the market that we would get a bunch of inflation because the feds on hold for

1:34.8

longer. And meanwhile, we have fiscal stimulus and the economy is recovering really strongly.

1:40.4

Exactly right. I mean, that is sort of interesting. I was watching the press conference. And

1:46.0

there were so many questions about inflation. So many questions about when the fed is going to

1:52.1

perhaps pull back one day on its asset purchases, the so-called taper. And the answers were really

1:58.9

the same. Like Chairman Powell was incredibly consistent. By the way, I should mention,

2:04.4

we're recording this April 29th, the meeting was yesterday, April 28th. But the answers were

2:09.8

incredibly consistent. He's like, look, I'm not going to do anything until we get there until we

2:14.2

see the inflation until we get the full employment and everything. And so he's kind of like

2:18.4

stop asking, but this dynamic in which everyone sees these pressures are building in the economy

2:25.7

for an unknown length of time. And a fed that's willing to not do anything until they actually

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