* It is the first Friday of the month, and that means that this morning we got the September Non-Farm Payroll number
* Anyone who has listened to my podcasts and video blogs knows that for months I have criticized these so-called strong jobs reports
* I think what's going on is a transformation of the economy from full-time jobs to part-time jobs and that necessitates creating more jobs that you destroy, but the real story is beneath the surface
* The report we got today was one of the weakest reports relative to expectations than we've had in years
* This may be the final missing piece to the economic puzzle that shows that the economy is not as strong as everybody, including the Fed pretends it to be
* And that the rate hikes expected to be around the corner are a distant blur on the horizon
* Soon more will join me in recognizing the more QE is coming
* Of course QE is not medicine; it is toxic
* Let's get down to the tale of the tape with the jobs numbers
* First, the bigger number is the August number, which was expected to be revised up, was revised down to 136,000 jobs
* July was also revised down
* The September number was expected to be 203,000 and actually came in at 142,000
* This is an average of 163,000 jobs for the last 3 months
* Six of the last 8 jobs numbers have been revised downward
* The August labor force participation rate was 62.6, which was the lowest of the "recovery"
* The September rate dropped another .2 to 62.4, which is the lowest since 1977
* Another 579,000 left the labor force in September - now there are 94.6 million Americans not working
* Average hourly earnings, expected to rise .2, remained flat
* In fact, the average work week declined from 34.6 to 34.5
* If you remember, what has Janet Yellen stated as a requirement for a Fed rate hike? - An improvement in the labor market.
* The labor market was singled out as a reason why rates remained at zero in September
* While others speculated that rates might hike in October or December, I said the labor market is not going to improve, so the Fed will not raise rates
* Janet Yellen is looking at labor force participation, which has declined to a new low
* Yellen is also looking for an improvement in wages - that is going the other way
* If you also look at the details of this jobs report, you'll see that jobs created are low-paying jobs and jobs lost are higher-paying jobs
* For example, we lost jobs in wholesale trade, manufacturing and logging - those are good-paying blue collar jobs
* We gained jobs in leisure and hospitality, education and healthcare, retail trade - and a lot of these jobs are temporary or part time
* This is why there is not real recovery, why people can't save or buy houses
* This weak jobs number is another excuse for the Fed not to raise rates
* Some are pointing to this jobs number as proof of the Fed's wisdom in not raising rates in September
* However, Yellen stated that rates would go up if the economy continues to improve as the Fed expects - but the economy is getting worse
* I've always said that the Fed does not want to raise rates because it does not want to look foolish if it has to back down from a rate hike
* We got more economic data today: factory orders wer down 1.7% worse than the expected number of -1.3%
* Also, last month's number was revised down, making this the tenth month in a row that factory orders have been down, year over year
* This only happens in a recession
* Maybe we are in a recession
* We don't have Q3 GDP numbers yet, but yesterday the Atlanta Fed reduced its Q3 estimate to .9
* The consensus on Wall Street and at the Fed is still 2.5
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