Vanguard’s Joe Davis on AI vs. The National Debt: The Tug-of-War To Decide America’s Future | #605

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

The Idea Farm

Management, Investing, Business

4.8 • 978 Ratings

🗓️ 7 November 2025

⏱️ 60 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today’s guest is Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Global Chief Economist and Global Head of Vanguard’s Investment Strategy Group. His latest research on megatrends is covered in his book, Coming Into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments. In today’s episode, Joe explains why the coming decade for the U.S. economy will be shaped by a tug-of-war between AI and demographics-driven deficits. While the most likely outcome is optimistic (the benefits of AI offset demographic pressures), the next most likely outcome is pessimistic (AI fails to meet our expectations and growth tumbles, putting pressure on the government’s balance sheet). Joe emphasizes the need for investors to prepare for non-consensus outcomes and embrace diversification to navigate this uncertain future. Listen to Joe’s first appearance on the show in February 2020. (0:00) Starts (1:40) AI's impact on the economy (7:26) Megatrends and technological change (19:18) Financial market signals, narratives, and nonconsensus outcomes (25:23) Comparing hype in AI stocks, gold, and economic scenarios (32:44) Historical technology cycles (41:48) The role of international bonds in a diversified portfolio (47:47) AI's impact on financial advisors (55:10) The future of automation & AI ----- Sponsor: ⁠AcreTrader⁠ is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. For more information, please visit ⁠acretrader.com/meb⁠. ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Medfavor Show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth.
0:10.9	Join us as we discuss the craft of investing and uncover new and profitable ideas, all to help you grow wealthier and wiser.
0:16.9	Better investing starts here.
0:19.5	Metfabor is the co-founder and chief investment officer at Cambria Investment Management.
0:22.5	Did it industry regulations, he will not discuss any of Cambria's funds on this podcast.
0:25.8	All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Cambria investment management or its affiliates.
0:31.2	For more information, visit cambrain investments.com.
0:34.3	Over the past two decades, we've seen our fair share of economic volatility between inflation,
0:39.7	recession, and geopolitical upheaval risk.
0:42.0	Adjusting your portfolio can be a daunting task.
0:45.1	One asset class that historically has served as a consistent hedge against this uncertainty is farmland.
0:51.2	Investors, myself included, have been interested in farmland on account of its
0:54.8	historically stable track record in the face of rapid economic change. Between 1997 and
1:00.9	2022, we've lost approximately 4.8 acres of cropland per minute to urbanization, while this same
1:08.1	expanding population needs the food, fuel, and fiber farms produce.
1:12.5	So why aren't more considering farmland? Access. Purchasing a farm costs millions of dollars
1:17.6	and working with local farmers takes time and agricultural expertise. Acre trader provides
1:22.7	investors passive access to farmland with investment minimums of only $15,000. Learn more about investing in
1:29.4	farmland with acre trader. Investments in private placements are illiquid speculative and may result
1:34.7	in the complete loss of capital securities offered through NCPS member of FINRA SIPC.
1:41.1	Welcome back everybody. Today's episode is with fan favorite Joe Davis, Vanguard's global chief
1:46.7	economist, global head of Vanguard's investment strategy group. His latest research on megatrends
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