Using anecdotes to predict recessions

The Indicator from Planet Money

NPR

Business

4.7 • 9.5K Ratings

🗓️ 29 May 2024

⏱️ 11 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Eight times a year, we award regional Federal Reserve Banks with our coveted Beigie Award. While the anecdotes within the Beige Book offer us fascinating looks into the economy, to others, it can be difficult to make anything of the stories they tell. That's why we're giving out a special Beigie award today to some economists who found a way to use anecdotes to peer into our economic future.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	NPR.
0:03.0	Robert.
0:05.0	Robert Smith.
0:12.0	Robert Smith, why the long face?
0:14.0	I read something on the internet that I disagree with.
0:18.0	You haven't gotten used to this by now?
0:20.0	I know, I know, I know, but this was someone bad-mouthing the page book of all things.
0:25.6	No, the beige book is maybe our favorite obscure government report.
0:29.6	It comes from the Federal Reserve containing short anecdotes about the economy.
0:33.7	Well, you know who doesn't agree with us?
0:35.4	Journalist Matt Iglesias.
0:37.4	He usually has these hot takes I enjoy, but this time on Twitter,
0:41.6	his hot take was about, well, I'm just going to have Matt read it for us.
0:45.6	What is the point to the Bage Book?
0:47.8	We supplement our statistically valid survey with another survey that's worse.
0:51.6	Why? You know, here at the indicator, we love the Bage Book. with another survey that's worse, why?
0:52.8	You know, here at the indicator,
0:53.8	we love the beige book because, you know,
0:55.7	it tells these little beautiful stories
0:57.8	about the economy.
0:59.1	So why do you hate beauty?
1:01.8	I just think it's funny because the beige book is supposed to be an
	...

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