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The Breakdown

US Stock Market Cap to GDP Reaches 190%, Eclipsing Dotcom Bubble High

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8786 Ratings

🗓️ 1 September 2020

⏱️ 11 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today’s episode of The Breakdown looks at the stories the stock market is trying to tell, including: New all time high in total market capitalization to GDP ratio (higher than dotcom bubble)  “No precedent for how high” valuations can go  Fed denies asset bubble; intimates it wouldn’t care about asset bubbles if full unemployment comes with it Bezos at $200,000,000,000 Percentage of stocks traded by individuals reaches all time high of 20% Robinhood leads in FTX complaints Buffett’s Japan trading firm bet

Transcript

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0:00.0

Now, some of you smart math folks may be saying to yourself, well, it's probably more about

0:05.4

the GDP cratering in the context of COVID-19 than it is about somehow the stock market going

0:12.4

up so much more.

0:13.8

The problem with that is that using pre-pandemic GDP, the ratio is still 170%, an all-time

0:20.4

high, higher than that March 2000.com bubble peak.

0:25.1

Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

0:29.2

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

0:35.0

The breakdown is sponsored by crypto.com, Bitstamp, and nexo.io, and produced and

0:40.9

distributed by CoinDess. What's going on, guys? It is Monday, August 31st, and today's episode is

0:50.1

sort of a super brief, where I'm going to share a lot of numbers and a lot of stories,

1:00.5

just even more briefly than usual. And the common theme is the stories the stock markets are telling us right now. And I thought that this was a good time for this episode, given that we're

1:05.2

in that classic transition from summer to fall, trying to wrap our heads around everything

1:09.5

going on, looking, I think,

1:11.2

uneasily at what's going to happen with the markets as we go into this election season. So

1:16.8

it should be a pretty interesting way to try to get a sense of just what's out there and what's

1:21.5

happening. Let's start with the number that this episode was named for. Sven Henrik, who's Northman trader on Twitter, tweeted out a chart this morning

1:31.0

showing that the market cap to GDP ratio has reached 184.7%.

1:36.7

That is the ratio of the total market capitalization of U.S. companies to the total GDP.

1:47.9

That 184.7% number compares to around 130% at the start of the year. According to a different tweet from Liz Ann Saunders, who's the

1:54.6

chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, it's actually 190%, with the total market cap of all U.S. stocks hovering just under 37 trillion.

2:05.7

The previous high of 167% was in March of 2000, which was obviously at the peak of the dot-com

2:13.8

bubble, so a precedent that isn't really great. Some of you smart math folks may be saying

...

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