US Recession Odds Surge Over 70%

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8 • 806 Ratings

🗓️ 17 June 2022

⏱️ 18 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io, NEAR and FTX US. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve increased the target Federal Funds rate by 0.75% – the biggest increase since 1994. While the markets initially popped on the news, stocks subsequently tanked and began pricing in even more economic pain to come. In today’s episode, NLW looks at the growing consensus around the idea that the United States is headed towards a recession. - Nexo is an all-in-one platform where you can buy crypto with a bank card and earn up to 16% interest on your assets. On the platform you can also swap 300+ market pairs and borrow against your crypto from 0% APR. Sign up at nexo.io by June 30 and receive up to $150 in BTC. - NEAR is a blockchain for a world reimagined. Through simple, secure, and scalable technology, NEAR empowers millions to invent and explore new experiences. Business, creativity, and community are being reimagined for a more sustainable and inclusive future. Find out more at NEAR.org. - FTX US is the safe, regulated way to buy Bitcoin, ETH, SOL and other digital assets. Trade crypto with up to 85% lower fees than top competitors and trade ETH and SOL NFTs with no gas fees and subsidized gas on withdrawals. Sign up at FTX.US today. - This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io, NEAR and FTX US. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve increased the target Federal Funds rate by 0.75% – the biggest increase since 1994. While the markets initially popped on the news, stocks subsequently tanked and began pricing in even more economic pain to come. In today’s episode, NLW looks at the growing consensus around the idea that the United States is headed towards a recession. - Nexo is an all-in-one platform where you can buy crypto with a bank card and earn up to 16% interest on your assets. On the platform you can also swap 300+ market pairs and borrow against your crypto from 0% APR. Sign up at nexo.io by June 30 and receive up to $150 in BTC. - NEAR is a blockchain for a world reimagined. Through simple, secure, and scalable technology, NEAR empowers millions to invent and explore new experiences. Business, creativity, and community are being reimagined for a more sustainable and inclusive future. Find out more at NEAR.org. - FTX US is the safe, regulated way to buy Bitcoin, ETH, SOL and other digital assets. Trade crypto with up to 85% lower fees than top competitors and trade ETH and SOL NFTs with no gas fees and subsidized gas on withdrawals. Sign up at FTX.US today. - “The Breakdown” is written, produced by and features Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell, research by Scott Hill and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Jared Schwartz is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsors is “Catnip” by Famous Cats and “I Don't Know How To Explain It” by Aaron Sprinkle. Image credit: Drew Angerer/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk. Join the discussion at discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8. - “The Breakdown” is written, produced by and features Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell, research by Scott Hill and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Jared Schwartz is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsors is “Catnip” by Famous Cats and “I Don't Know How To Explain It” by Aaron Sprinkle. Image credit: Drew Angerer/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk. Join the discussion at discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Americans feel like the economy is off.
0:03.2	And so the Biden camp is left having to convince voters either, one, that it's off for different reasons than they believe,
0:08.5	i.e. it's not his policies, or two, that their feelings are off.
0:12.9	That is a brutally difficult argument to have to make, whatever truth there may be behind it.
0:18.6	You're wrong about what you feel is not historically a winning
0:22.5	political position. Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW. It's a daily podcast on
0:30.7	macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. The breakdown is sponsored
0:35.8	by nexo.io, near anTX, and produced and distributed by
0:40.0	CoinDesk. What's going on, guys? It is Thursday, June 16th, and today we are talking about the
0:47.6	odds of a recession in the U.S. surging over 70%. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe
0:56.8	to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dig deeper into the conversation,
1:01.7	come join us on the Breakers Discord. It's where we discuss everything from macro to crypto to
1:06.7	crypto to topics beyond, and I would love to see you there. If you want to find a link to that, you can check
1:11.8	out the show notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. Lastly, a disclosure, as always, in
1:18.4	addition to them being a sponsor of the show, I also work with FTX. So today, in many ways,
1:24.5	is part two of yesterday's show. In that program, we were discussing the Fed's
1:30.0	recent turn more hawkish. Effectively, last Friday's inflation report for the month of May,
1:37.3	surprised to the upside, where inflation had been expected to be around 8.2%, suggesting we had
1:43.1	peaked, and instead went up to 8.6%. Almost immediately,
1:47.9	the Fed started signaling that they might actually raise their estimates and forward guidance
1:52.8	of 50 basis point hikes for June and July and consider a 75 basis point hike in the upcoming
1:58.5	FOMC meeting, which concluded yesterday. In that episode, we talked
	...

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