Hello, fellow Rebel Capitals, hope you're well.

So I've got some really interesting charts

that I just found on Twitter

that I want to go over with you right now

that shows how this time we are dangerously close to where we were during the GFC, not just end, but also going back to dot com and past recessions so let's get into it right now this is some

fascinating stuff so first let's go over to Twitter and this is from Rosenberg so Dave Rosenberg who's really a great

I like listening to him on podcast David Rosenberg I guess guess, at Econ Guy Rosie.

So he tweeted this chart the other day

that is talking about how it's rather unlikely or just adding to the data points that would suggest

it's rather unlikely we get a no landing or a soft landing. And you know one of the mistakes that I see people make on both sides of the argument is they get fixated on one or two data points.

And they ignore the other 95% of the data points that don't exactly fit their narrative.

And what's interesting is the percentage changes throughout the cycle.

So as an example, let's just say

when the curve first inverts, and it's true,

you don't immediately have a recession,

that just tells you that the economy is slowing down and these are the things that have happened in the past.

This is the way the cycle has played out.

But that time, let's just say the amount of economic data that is good news, actual good news, is 75% and the bad news is 25%.

Okay, but then we go to 50-50 and then we go to 50-50,

and then we go to 75% bad news, 25% good news.

But the people that are still pounding the table

on no recession keep holding on and focusing on the diminishing part of the

...