4.8 • 731 Ratings
🗓️ 30 May 2024
⏱️ 29 minutes
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David Aaronovitch and guests assess the latest developments in Ukraine. In 2022, Russia was expected to win the war easily. That didn't happen. But is Russia gaining the upper hand now?
Guests:
James Waterhouse, BBC’s Ukraine Correspondent Polina Ivanova, FT correspondent covering Russia, Ukraine and Central Asia Michael Clarke, Professor of Defence Studies at Kings College London and Specialist Advisor to the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy Ann Marie Dailey, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and policy researcher at RAND
Production team: Sally Abrahams, Kirsteen Knight and Ben Carter Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman Sound engineers: Neil Churchill
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0:00.0 | BBC Sounds, Music, Radio, podcasts. |
0:07.3 | Few matters of foreign and defence policy are as consequential to any post-election |
0:13.0 | British government than the war in Ukraine. |
0:16.7 | The expectation of a quick Russian win back in 2022 was replaced by the expectation of a successful |
0:23.8 | Ukrainian counteroffensive in 23, and now by a growing feeling this spring that the Russians |
0:31.1 | are successfully grinding the Ukrainians down. |
0:35.1 | So what is the position? |
0:41.9 | Is it true, as some commentators have begun to suggest, that the Russians are now winning? Step inside the briefing room and together we'll find out. First, what is the mood |
0:51.2 | in Ukraine, both on the front line and among the people? James Waterhouse is the BBC's |
0:56.8 | Ukraine correspondent and joins us from Kiev. James Waterhouse, what's the mood of the Ukrainian |
1:02.4 | people at the moment? Has it changed at all recently? I think there are two layers to this answer |
1:09.2 | in that, of course you have that stoicism throughout Ukraine. Of course, |
1:14.2 | you have that concrete ideology of wanting to remain a democratic country free of Russia's grasp. |
1:21.0 | And nothing has changed in that respect. You know, I remember asking people in 2022, in January |
1:26.8 | of 2022, saying, well, look, you know, if the so-called unthinkable happened, would you fight? And there are many that said, yeah, I would. Men and women. And we know with the outbreak of the full-scale invasion, when they queued up in their tens of thousands and were given automatic weapons and headed to the front lines, |
1:45.0 | that they meant it. Whilst, of course, Ukraine wants to swerve any kind of defeat or compromise |
1:51.7 | to Russia, there are politics that are starting to seep in to that resolve. You just need to |
1:57.1 | look at President Zelensky's arm wrestle with trying to mobilize enough men for the fight, because we are long past that period of volunteering. |
2:05.5 | You now have men petrified, in some cases of being called up, being sent to typically places far from where they live, perhaps, places that have been reduced to rubble, places where it is Russia with momentum, and places where your life expectancy, if you're on the front line, |
2:22.3 | is not long. And that will inevitably feed into a potential appetite to keep fighting. But I think |
2:30.2 | for now, as we speak, David, it translates to an overarching difficulty. Things are just |
2:36.6 | difficult. Everyone knows what is going on. Everyone knows they're showing the spotlight with another |
... |
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