Ukraine: what's the counter-offensive latest?
The Briefing Room
BBC
4.8 • 731 Ratings
🗓️ 7 December 2023
⏱️ 29 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The start of Ukraine’s counter-offensive against occupying Russian forces was hailed as the breakthrough moment of the war so far. Now six months on, we ask what happened?
The Secretary General of NATO has said we should be ‘prepared for bad news’ and the White House has warned that the US is running out of time and money to fund the war.
In this week's Briefing Room with David Aaronovitch we find out why things haven’t progressed as hoped and how much Ukraine’s key backers still support the war.
Joining David to discuss are: Shashank Joshi - Defence Editor at The Economist Michael Clarke - Professor of Defence studies and Specialist Advisor to the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy Karin Von Hippel - Director General, Royal United Services Institute Prof. Dr. Daniela Schwarzer - Executive Board member of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, a German foreign policy think tank based in Berlin
Production: Kirsteen Knight and Alex Lewis Production Co-ordinators: Jacqui Johnson and Sophie Hill Sound: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | BBC Sounds, Music, Radio, podcasts. |
| 0:09.0 | While most eyes have been on Israel and Gaza, Ukraine has entered its second winter of war. |
| 0:16.2 | Neither Ukraine nor the invading Russians achieve any major breakthrough in 2023. |
| 0:21.6 | This week, a support package for Ukraine failed to make it through the US Congress, |
| 0:27.1 | while at the weekend, the Secretary-General of NATO, Yen Stoltenberg, |
| 0:31.1 | found it necessary in a major interview to dampen any expectations of victory any time soon. |
| 0:37.3 | We have to support Ukraine in both good |
| 0:39.5 | times and bad times, he said. So why has the war become a military stalemate and how likely is it |
| 0:47.9 | that this stalemate will be broken? How strong is support now for Ukraine in the US and Europe? |
| 0:54.1 | And what might it need for the conflict to end? |
| 0:57.6 | Step into the briefing room and together we'll find out. |
| 1:04.2 | Let's start with what's happening militarily. |
| 1:07.4 | I'm joined by Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at The Economist, and Michael Clark, |
| 1:11.5 | Professor of Defence Studies, and a specialist advisor to the Joint Committee on the National |
| 1:16.0 | Security Strategy. Shashank Joshi, I had a respected British political commentator say this |
| 1:21.9 | week that Russia is now winning this war. It's really offhandedly. I mean, is it? |
| 1:29.9 | Russia has the initiative, |
| 1:37.3 | I would say. Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed. It is unlikely to yield any sort of breakthrough. |
| 1:42.8 | It hasn't met even its minimum objectives. And while there are some successes, perhaps in Crimea, in putting pressure on the Black Sea fleet, |
| 1:46.4 | it's clear to me that this offensive has failed, while Russia is going on the offensive or staying on |
| 1:52.1 | the offensive in Avivka, in the east of the country, it's putting a lot of pressure on Ukraine. |
| 1:57.6 | And while I don't think Russia is going to break through either, I don't think it has |
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