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It's now 16 months since Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

So much that is consequential from the state of the world economy to European security

rests on the outcome of that conflict.

For several weeks now, the Ukrainians have been counter-attacking Russian forces,

and as President Zelensky said on Wednesday, progress has been slow.

So as of now, how does the balance of forces in Ukraine look?

What are the prospects for Ukrainian advances and what are the obstacles?

Step inside the briefing room and together we'll find out.

With me, to analyse the war so far and think about how events might unfold,

a Michael Clark, Professor of Defence Studies at King's College London

and Specialist Advisor to the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy,

Mark Galiotti, writer on Russian security affairs and director of the consultancy,

Mayak Intelligence, Shashank Joshi, defence editor of the economist,

and Karen Van Hippel,

Director General of the Royal United Services Institute. Mark Galeotti, we're now in the second summer of the war, and before we come on to discuss the current counter-offensive, what do you

imagine the military and political objectives of Ukraine and Russia actually are at this point?

Well, of course, even military objectives are ultimately political. I think Ukraine, I mean, obviously

in the long term, it wants to drive all the Russian forces out of Occupy territory. But I think,

realistically, for this campaign season, its aim is to make sufficient gains, territorial,

but also more broadly, about degrading the Russians' capacity to continue to fight, that it

reassures their Western backers, that this is not going to be a forever war, and that hopefully

...