UBS hikes private credit default view
Wall Street Breakfast
Seeking Alpha
4.1 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 25 February 2026
⏱️ 6 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast, where we cover the top news for investors every morning. |
| 0:07.6 | It's good to have you here on this Wednesday, February 25th. I'm Julie Morgan. |
| 0:14.4 | Strategists at UBS Group now warned that default rates in private credit could climb to as high as 15%. That's two percentage points |
| 0:23.5 | above the firm's forecast issued less than a month ago. In that earlier report, UBS cautioned that |
| 0:29.7 | direct lenders might face defaults of around 13% if artificial intelligence leads to an aggressive |
| 0:36.7 | disruption across corporate borrowers. |
| 0:39.7 | But that view became even more bearish in recent weeks as fears about AI upending the U.S. |
| 0:45.5 | economy deepened. |
| 0:47.1 | The report published on Tuesday said, what is new? |
| 0:50.2 | A clearer catalyst, rapid, severe AI disruption. |
| 0:54.3 | Concerns about such a scenario have intensified in recent days. |
| 0:58.9 | Stocks opened the week lower after a report from Cetrini Research rattled markets by outlining a scenario |
| 1:05.5 | in which advances in AI push U.S. unemployment into the double digits by 2028. The strategists also flagged |
| 1:14.1 | elevated risk in other credit markets, projecting worst-case default rates of up to 6% for leverage |
| 1:21.0 | loans and 10% for high-yield bonds, above the estimates of up to 4% and 8% in the previous report. |
| 1:30.1 | The CFO of AMC Entertainment, Sean Goodman on Tuesday, told investors there's a significant |
| 1:36.5 | opportunity to continue closing underperforming theaters. |
| 1:41.2 | He said on the Post-Earnings conference call that the company has the option to renew |
| 1:45.8 | or terminate roughly 85 leases a year. That's about 10% of its locations. Goodman added that AMC |
| 1:54.0 | will be closing more theaters than they open and that the new ones that they're opening are generating |
| 1:59.3 | significantly more profit than the ones they close. |
| 2:02.9 | The remarks followed the company's report of lower fourth quarter attendance |
... |
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