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China's economic rebound loses steam, while a journal survey finds economists more upbeat

on their prospects for the US.

The recession forecasts are still historically elevated, but there's definitely pullback

on the odds that they are putting on a recession in the next year.

Plus, US pay raises outpace inflation and will check in on the money race shaping next year's presidential election.

It's Monday, July 17th.

I'm Luke Vargas for the Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of What's News,

the top headlines and business stories moving your world today.

China's economy is barely growing.

GDP data out this morning showed growth of just 0.8% over the second quarter,

compared with the first three months of the year.

It is the latest sign that China's rebound after abandoning COVID controls around the start of the year

has lost momentum. The hope was that Chinese consumers would buoy the economy and reverse a real estate slide,

but today's data suggests that hope may have been misplaced, with June retail sales rising just

0.2% last month compared to May, while youth unemployment hit a record high.

Meanwhile, economic sentiment is moving in the other direction across the Pacific,

where economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal are lowering the probability of a US recession

in the next 12 months to 54% from 61% in the prior two surveys.

General reporter Harriet Torrey explains the new outlook by forecasters.

...