U.S. Economy Not Nearly as Strong as Payrolls Suggest – Ep. 59
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
Peter Schiff
4.6 • 5.9K Ratings
🗓️ 7 March 2015
⏱️ 45 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
* February Non-Farm Payrolls Number - 295,000 jobs
* Unemployment down 5.5%
* Analysts were expecting a miss
* Dollar at a new high
* Productivity dropped 2.2%
* Factory orders fell for the 6th consecutive month
* Economic data points only seen during recessions
* The Dow closed down - NASDAQ down more
* Labor force participation rate is down
* Average hourly earnings flat
* Number of people not in the labor force at an all-time high
* Increase in jobs represents people working more than one jobs
* 45% of the 295,000 jobs are assumed to have been created by optimistic government statisticians
* Disconnect between the weak GDP and the jobs numbers
* Consumer credit declined, indicating the consumer is struggling
* It's a good time to take advantage of the strong dollar and invest abroad
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Well, today we got the highly anticipated February non-Farm payrolls number. |
| 0:16.0 | And before the number came out, a lot of people were already prepared for a miss. |
| 0:22.6 | And even though the expectation was for 230,000 jobs, there were a lot of analysts that were |
| 0:29.3 | potentially bracing themselves for a miss. |
| 0:32.9 | Maybe low 200,000, maybe even 190,000. |
| 0:38.0 | The reason, of course, being the cold weather. |
| 0:40.8 | And so Wall Street was already ready to dismiss any negative number as being just weather-related. |
| 0:48.4 | So they had, they were hedging their bets before they got the number. |
| 0:52.3 | But of course, there were other reasons to suspect that this number wouldn't be as strong as people thought. |
| 0:58.5 | And we had been getting a lot of negative economic data recently, |
| 1:03.3 | including just yesterday, with respect to jobs, we got the weekly unemployment claims that came out. |
| 1:12.0 | And it was a jump to 320,000. |
| 1:14.6 | That was the second week in a row that we were above 300,000. |
| 1:18.0 | People were expecting the rate to fall off. |
| 1:20.8 | Instead, it rose, and now it's at the highest level in 10 months. |
| 1:26.5 | We also got the Challenger report for February job cuts, |
| 1:30.6 | better than 50,000 announced layoffs in the month of February. |
| 1:35.1 | That's the second consecutive month of more than 50,000 layoffs according to Challenger. |
| 1:40.8 | In fact, the year to date, right? |
| 1:42.2 | You got two months into the year, but we're already 19% ahead of last year's layoff pace. |
| 1:49.0 | And supposedly, this is the year where the economy is strong enough for the Fed to raise rates, |
| 1:54.3 | yet we're laying off 19% more people this year than last. |
... |
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