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On The Tape

Turn The Market Upside Down & a Conversation with Rebecca Patterson

On The Tape

RiskReversal Media

News, Business, Investing, Business News

4.6757 Ratings

🗓️ 2 August 2024

⏱️ 64 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses discuss the current market volatility, touching on economic indicators, interest rates, and weakening sectors. They highlight the recent downtrend in the S&P 500 and the implications of lower yields due to a slowing economy. The duo analyzes the significance of the ISM numbers, China's weak manufacturing data, and the geopolitical impact on oil prices. Other topics include the performance of mega-cap tech stocks, the role of AI, consumer behavior in response to inflation, and the performance of financial institutions. After the break, Rebecca Patterson joins for a deep dive into recent market trends and her economic outlook. They discuss the resilience of the U.S. consumer, despite inflationary pressures and credit reliance. Patterson highlights the significant changes in global economies, especially China's struggle to stimulate growth and Japan’s exit from negative interest rates. The conversation also covers the cautious stance on small caps and the nuanced expectations for Fed rate cuts. Patterson shares insights from her New York Times op-ed on the potential implications of Trump's economic policies on the U.S. Treasury market and delves into the broader impacts of the global geopolitical landscape, including the Middle East conflict and its effects on oil prices. The episode also explores the sustainability of the AI-driven stock market and the potential investment opportunities in undervalued markets like the UK, emphasizing the importance of a diversified investment strategy in uncertain times. Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at [email protected] with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We’re on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Transcript

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0:00.0

A warm welcome to the On the Tape podcast. I'm Guy Adami. Danny Moses, how are you? I'm good, man. How are you? You were singing earlier. You'll spare us, but I like it when you sing.

0:10.1

Very good. Dan, Nathan's here. I'm doing great guy. We're going to be joined later by Rebecca Patterson. You all know her. You remember her from the Money in Motion

0:21.6

Days perhaps. But Rebecca is a great voice and given what's going on, it's a perfect time to happen.

0:27.3

Well, she also had a great op-ed yesterday. That would have been Wednesday, July 31st in the New York

0:32.1

Times opinion section. Publication. Yeah, it was really good. When I was a young lad, I think it's

0:36.9

1976-ish. I was a young lad i think it's nineteen seventy six ish i was a

0:40.0

rock and roller but every once in a while like a pop song would sort of come out of nowhere there

0:44.9

was a song by vicky sue robinson you familiar with vicky sue robinson danny nope yes you are i mean

0:51.1

i will when you tell me what song she's saying i'm gonna remember to remember. Her one and only hit in 1976 was turn the beat around. Remember? Love to hear. And what we're seeing here effectively over the last couple weeks now is the market sort of turning the beat around. Things are starting to turn. And it's turning on a number of different fronts forget about the intradate

1:11.3

turns we've seen in the s&p 500 and the nasdaq and they've been vicious we saw our first down

1:18.1

two percent day in the s and p 500 after 350 days and we're starting to see moves to the upside

1:25.2

moves to the downside as we're sitting here on a Thursday,

1:27.8

we have a VIX. It's north of 19. So a lot of things are turning around. Let's start with the

1:33.4

reasons why, Danny. And I think a lot of this, you know, as much as everybody wants to predicate

1:38.0

things on AI and revolutions and money flows and all that thing, if you think about it,

1:43.3

the stock market is still predicated

1:45.0

in a number of different things. And at a certain point, the economy matters and the relative

1:49.5

strength of the economy matters. And what we're seeing in terms of interest rates predicated,

1:54.4

again, to use the word, on the ISN numbers and some of the weakening data, I think, is eye-opening.

1:59.8

So let's start there, Danny Moses.

2:01.9

Yeah, listen, look at oil to start with.

2:04.3

All this geopolitical stuff happening in the Middle East, yet oil continues to struggle to move higher.

...

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