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Patrick Boyle On Finance

Turkey's Rescue Plan - What to Make of Turkey’s Latest Currency Move?

Patrick Boyle On Finance

Patrick Boyle

Investing, Business

4.9320 Ratings

🗓️ 24 December 2021

⏱️ 16 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Send us a textHaving defied internal and external economic logic by repeatedly cutting interest rates, Erdogan opted this week for a new set of measures to stabilize its currency. What should we make of Turkey’s latest currency move?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceVisit our web...

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello and welcome. You are listening to Patrick Boyle on Finance, a podcast exploring ideas from quantitative finance, examining events occurring in markets right now and financial history to see what lessons can be taken away, including interviews with some of the most interesting people in the world of finance. To learn more about the podcast, visit onfinance.org.

0:27.6

President Erdogan's government announced extraordinary measures earlier this week to boost the Turkish

0:33.5

lira, including a new savings product designed to protect savings from currency fluctuations.

0:40.4

These savings schemes are set to be rolled out in a few days and we don't yet know how much

0:45.6

take-up they'll be or what the impact will be on the public finances in Turkey.

0:51.0

The Turkish lira rose more than 40% against the dollar after the announcement, and it's

0:56.7

been rallying ever since.

0:58.9

This is a dramatic change in direction after the exchange rate had hit a record low the previous

1:04.6

day.

1:05.6

Monday was the most volatile day of trading for the lira since the new Turkish lira was introduced.

1:12.6

The idea of this savings product is that the Turkish Treasury will make up for losses incurred

1:18.8

by savers if the lira falls by more than the central bank's interest rate against the

1:24.0

dollar over the life of the savings plans.

1:28.1

This investment is available to individuals but not to businesses and the accounts will

1:33.1

have maturities between 3 and 12 months.

1:36.7

The minimum interest rate will be the central bank's benchmark rate and no withholding

1:41.8

tax will be applied.

1:43.8

So if banks pay 14% for one-year lira deposits, but the currency depreciates by more than

1:50.6

that against the dollar in the same period, the Treasury, which really means the taxpayer,

1:56.6

would pay the deposit holders the difference.

1:59.7

Let's take a look at how the scheme works and

2:02.1

what it might mean for the Turkish economy. So Turkish savers under this scheme are allowed

...

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