Tuesday - September 16, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 16 September 2025
⏱️ 6 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Market Recap and FOMC Meeting Preview - September 16th, Dividend Cafe
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel covers the market performance on a fairly uneventful trading day, with the DOW closing down 125 points, and both the S&P and Nasdaq seeing minor declines. The discussion shifts to the upcoming FOMC meeting, highlighting the high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, potential dissents from new appointee Governor Steven Miran and others, and the implications for future Fed policy. Retail sales and industrial production data show stronger-than-expected performance, despite a softening labor market. Brian also touches on the Home Builder Confidence Survey and its correlation with interest rates and the housing market. The episode ends with a reminder to tune in for the next update and reach out with questions.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:28 FOMC Meeting and Rate Policy Expectations
01:01 Potential Dissents and Fed Dynamics
01:43 Understanding the Taylor Rule
03:16 Current Economic Indicators
04:10 Conclusion and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.0 | Good evening and welcome in to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, September the 16th. |
| 0:18.0 | Brian Saitel is with you here on a fairly uneventful day overall in |
| 0:23.5 | in trading. The market ended up closing lower on the day. It had been waffling around fair value, |
| 0:28.3 | but we closed down 125 points on the Dow. SMP was down 10 basis points. Nasdaq was down |
| 0:35.9 | seven basis points, so just barely flat. The 10 year was flat. |
| 0:40.3 | Didn't budge a whole lot. We're still at 4.03. And of course, tomorrow, all eyes will be on the |
| 0:45.1 | FOMC meeting, which will conclude. And they'll set rate policy. There's now more or less |
| 0:49.9 | what has been a 96% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 6% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, |
| 0:57.7 | which isn't likely to happen. The guidance that they'll end up giving is going to be the most |
| 1:02.1 | important thing. That happens after the meeting, partly after the meeting in their statement, |
| 1:06.9 | the official language and how that will change. And then also the press conference, which is |
| 1:11.7 | really going to be the most important part. I do think this time around, you're going to get |
| 1:15.8 | more dissension than in the past. You've got, remember, Governor Mirren, Stephen Mirren, |
| 1:20.4 | that was just appointed by the Senate yesterday, is the Trump appointee and is likely to |
| 1:26.9 | dissent and go for a 50 basis point rate cut. |
| 1:29.4 | And then you could also get folks like Bowman or Waller, which could be jockeying for a Fed job themselves, |
| 1:36.3 | do the same thing. And if you got all three of them, that would mean that this would be the first meeting with three dissents since 1988. |
| 1:43.3 | So quite a long period of time there, call it 30 plus years, if that were to happen. |
| 1:49.2 | It'll be interesting to see, partly just for the data itself and then also partly to see he's actually eyeing the Fed chair. |
| 1:55.7 | There was a question in there today about the Taylor rule and what does it mean? It's a basically mid-90s algebraic |
| 2:04.5 | formula that was derived by John Taylor and it was essentially higher rates when the economy is |
... |
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