Tuesday - May 26, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 26 May 2026
⏱️ 9 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Brian Szytel recaps the first trading day after Memorial Day as markets mostly rose despite fluid US-Iran geopolitical headlines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at fresh record highs while the Dow finished slightly lower after recovering from deeper losses. He notes strong rallies in semiconductors and AI-related tech, warning of potential exuberance as charts look parabolic, alongside lower oil prices and a drop in the 10-year yield to 4.49%. Economic updates included consumer confidence at 93 (above expectations) and a modest softening in the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which he attributes to affordability pressures but suggests a 2006-style collapse is unlikely due to supply constraints and high homeowner equity. He also addresses why S&P 500 dividend yield is lower, discusses the nuances of buybacks versus net share issuance, and explains a preference for rising dividend income over buybacks.
00:00 Welcome Back Overview
00:27 Geopolitics And Market Reaction
01:02 Tech Rally And Exuberance
01:36 Oil Rates And Deal Odds
02:38 Record Highs Year Context
03:09 Economic Data Confidence Housing
03:39 Housing Market Why Softening
04:29 S&P Dividend Yield Question
06:03 Buybacks Versus Dividends
06:58 Wrap Up And Disclosures
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Good evening and welcome back to Dividend Cafe. This is Brian Saitel, your host this evening here. |
| 0:18.0 | On the first day back after Memorial day and i hope everyone had a |
| 0:22.4 | nice weekend and good day off and enjoyed markets being closed over the weekend we got several |
| 0:28.3 | different news fronts over the weekend on the geopolitical landscape between the u.s and iran |
| 0:33.0 | and originally there was a deal that looked like it was going to happen and then that was taken off of the table sometime yesterday and nonetheless, futures were up and markets actually ended up closing for the most part higher on the day. |
| 0:46.1 | The Dow was still lower on the day by about 70 points, but it was lower on the day by 300 points earlier. |
| 0:52.3 | So it really came off the lows. |
| 0:56.0 | But both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were quite positive. S&P was up about two-thirds of a percent. NASDAQ was up about 1.2 |
| 1:01.1 | percent. So this is very much let the good times roll with the semis and a lot of the tech and AI-related |
| 1:07.6 | names that rallied today quite a bit. Some of the semi-names were up a ton, 15-20%. |
| 1:12.6 | So some of this stuff is getting to the level of exuberance, at least on the semis side. |
| 1:18.0 | If you look at most of the charts and you can just look up top five semis or AI-related semi-conducting |
| 1:23.6 | names, and all the charts look basically parabolic. So where that will end, I wish I could |
| 1:28.0 | tell you, but buyer beware is the only thing I would recommend on that particular trade at this point. |
| 1:33.6 | But that aside, again, positive day in markets overall. You also had oil down on the day, |
| 1:39.1 | so you had Brent just off a little bit and then crude WTI was down about 3%. And so you had interest rates |
| 1:45.7 | that moved a little lower. Those two things are correlated. So tenure was down seven basis points |
| 1:50.7 | on the day to 449. So as far as a deal getting done, your guess is as good as mine. Between the |
| 1:56.3 | U.S. and Iran and what that ultimately means, my feeling is that the market is pricing and that something |
| 2:01.3 | does get done, but that's just because the belief is that this administration doesn't have |
| 2:06.4 | the time that it might take to do it another way other than a deal. And so the question will just |
... |
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