Tuesday - May 13, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 13 May 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Market Update and Economic Indicators Review - May 13th
In this episode of 'Dividend Cafe' from May 13th, Brian Szytel provides a detailed market update and economic analysis. The S&P 500 showed positive trends, closing up 0.7% for the day, and the Nasdaq increased by 1.6%. Despite a decline in the Dow by 269 points due to a drop in a significant healthcare stock, the overall market shows signs of recovery, currently only 4% off its February highs. The improvement is attributed to the de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tariffs. Additionally, inflation rates came in cooler than expected for April, with Core and Headline CPI both at 0.2%, improving annual core inflation to 2.8%. Furthermore, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index indicated sentiment below its long-term average, while recession odds have decreased, leading to an optimistic adjustment in S&P 500 targets. Brian emphasizes patience during this period, reassures clients, and previews a light economic calendar for the following day.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:13 Stock Market Performance
01:29 Inflation and Economic Indicators
02:34 Treasury Yields and Fed Policy
03:08 Small Business Optimism and Recession Odds
03:58 Earnings and Forward Guidance
04:28 Conclusion and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.4 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, May the 13th. Brian Sightel with you here from our West Palm Beach, Florida office on a follow-through |
| 0:23.0 | day, at least on the S&P and the NAS from yesterday. So we had a down Dow on the day by 269 points. |
| 0:31.1 | And a lot of that was actually just one higher priced stock. That's a price weighted index. |
| 0:36.4 | And so there was a health care name in there. |
| 0:39.1 | And that was down quite a bit and drove the Dow index lower. But the S&P was up 0.7% on the day. |
| 0:45.3 | NASDAQ was up 1.6% on the day. And this technically puts the S&P actually positive on the year by |
| 0:52.2 | about 0.08%, which is basically flat on the year, but from being |
| 0:57.3 | down, call it 10 plus earlier about a month and a half ago, a little less than that. It's nice to |
| 1:03.2 | see, nonetheless. So we're off the highs now by only about 4% on the S&P 500. So the highs were put in on February 19th and only 4% off the highs now. |
| 1:15.0 | So that's good news. A lot of recovery, a lot of it based around de-escalation of trade between |
| 1:19.6 | China and the United States. Those tariffs were brought way, way down from where they were to more |
| 1:24.1 | reasonable levels. And there's a process that's going on, at least for the |
| 1:27.7 | next 90 days, to work out where this thing is going to settle out. And so you're getting |
| 1:32.0 | a follow through and some risk on trading here the last couple of days. Oil was also up today. |
| 1:36.9 | WTI was up about 2.87%. So you're seeing some of those things flow through. Big news for today |
| 1:43.6 | was on inflation. |
| 1:45.3 | We had CPI out, and both Core and Headline beat expectations. |
| 1:50.0 | They were cooler than expected. |
| 1:52.0 | And so you had Core CPI, actually and Headline, both came out at 0.2% positive for the month of April. |
| 1:58.5 | We were expecting 0.3% on consensus, and so that's better than |
| 2:02.6 | expected. And that puts the annualized number for Core and now 2.8% year over year, and that |
... |
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