Tuesday - July 29, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 29 July 2025
⏱️ 6 minutes
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Summary
Market Recap: Modest Moves and Economic Indicators - July 29th
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an update on market movements for Tuesday, July 29th. The S&P 500 ended its six-day winning streak with a slight decline while the Dow and Nasdaq saw modest changes. The bond market experienced a decrease in 10-year yields, and there are emerging expectations for a potential Fed rate cut in September. The episode also covers recent economic updates including better-than-expected consumer confidence, in-line job openings, and a slight dip in the Case-Shiller home price index. Brian also discusses the topic of corporate trustees in estate planning and the upcoming FOMC meeting and employment data releases. The day was relatively quiet overall, with marginal market movements. Listeners are encouraged to reach out with questions.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:41 Economic Indicators and Predictions
01:14 Consumer Confidence and Job Market
02:03 Housing Market Update
02:39 Corporate Trustee Discussion
03:18 Upcoming Events and Conclusion
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.0 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, July the 29th. Brian Saitel with you here and a bit of a down day here in markets, although |
| 0:22.6 | they've been up here at least on the S&P 500 for six days in a row. So we took a little breather |
| 0:27.8 | today. Dow was down 204 points. S&P was down about a third of a percent. NASDAQ was up |
| 0:34.5 | a little more than a third of a percent. So modest move on the day. |
| 0:38.3 | Decent move at the bond market, we actually had 10-year yields dropped by nine basis points. |
| 0:43.2 | So we closed at 432 on tens. And slowly but surely, you're getting lower interest rates that |
| 0:50.4 | are getting priced in here to overall yield curbs. Fed funds futures are now predicting |
| 0:56.2 | more like a two-thirds chance for a September rate cut. We've really just been oscillating around, |
| 1:01.7 | you know, call it 50-50 and in that number for some time. But now with bigger tariff deals |
| 1:07.5 | getting done, think Japan, think India, think EU, and lower inflation |
| 1:11.9 | numbers and also very slight weakening numbers in inflation and housing. You're just getting |
| 1:17.3 | a higher probability for sooner than later on where rates are going to go. And again, I think |
| 1:21.9 | markets today were largely just awaiting tomorrow's FMC meeting. But with that, let's see, |
| 1:26.9 | there was a few pieces of news |
| 1:28.2 | in the economic calendar. We had consumer confidence that was out better than expected. We got a 97.2 |
| 1:34.5 | versus a 95.5. Those numbers are probably arbitrary for you and for most, but just ahead of |
| 1:41.6 | expectations. It would be the takeaway there. Again, consumer confidence often |
| 1:45.2 | is more of a lagging indicator than a forward-looking indicator because it's a survey, basically, |
| 1:50.6 | about what humans just went through. So take it for what it is. We had a new job openings number, |
| 1:56.1 | which is the Joltz figure we talk about for the month of June. That was in line with consensus at 7.4 million, |
| 2:04.6 | although what I've been writing about in the last couple of months of these numbers is more the |
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