Tuesday - July 1, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 1 July 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Market Insights During a Choppy Pre-Holiday Week
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an update on the market activities on July 1st, during a shortened week leading up to the 4th of July holiday. The DOW showed significant gains despite a generally choppy market, with some large healthcare stocks contributing to its performance. The S&P and Nasdaq experienced minor declines. Key economic indicators such as the ISM and S&P Manufacturing Index were discussed, along with better-than-expected job opening numbers from the Jolts report. Upcoming economic data releases, including ADP private payroll and non-farm payroll, are also highlighted. The episode concludes with insights into recent legislation developments and the impartiality of Jerome Powell's decisions at the Federal Reserve. Brian encourages listeners to stay tuned for further updates and to reach out with questions.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:52 Economic Data Highlights
02:20 Upcoming Economic Events
02:54 Legislative Updates
03:41 Federal Reserve and Politics
05:16 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.4 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, July the 1st. Brian Sightell with you here on a holiday shortened 4th of July week. |
| 0:21.6 | And a choppy day overall in markets actually, we had, in somewhat frankly weird, we have the Dow up significantly almost 1%. |
| 0:29.6 | We got a plus 400 day on the Dow while the S&P was down about a tenth of a percent and the NASDAQ was down about eight tenths of a percent. |
| 0:38.2 | And there's some interesting quarter end rebalancing going on as part of the culprit there, |
| 0:42.6 | but there was some large health care names that are inside of the price weighted Dow that moved |
| 0:47.7 | the index more than otherwise. So you got some outperformance there on some of the value and |
| 0:52.2 | some of the blue chip names over some of the growth names today. The 10 year was more or less flat. We got a basis point higher, |
| 0:58.9 | closed at 424 on the 10 year on on treasuries. And an overall fairly quiet day, we did have a couple |
| 1:06.6 | of pieces of news out in the economic calendar on the day. We had an ISM manufacturing index |
| 1:12.2 | that was just a 10th below expectations. We got a 49 flat versus a 491 for the month of June. |
| 1:19.1 | Anything below 50, as you recall, is slightly contractionary, but a decent number there, pretty much |
| 1:23.8 | in line. There was a final read on the SMP manufacturing PMI number that was out |
| 1:30.0 | today that showed it's still in an expansionary territory, which it was in May and then also now for |
| 1:35.1 | June. It was a 52.9. And that was significantly above the expectations of 49.3. So you've got |
| 1:40.8 | part of the S&P manufacturing KMI showing a little bit higher, offset by part of ISM manufacturing, showing it a little lower. |
| 1:48.0 | I'll offset those two and say manufacturers hanging in there just fine. |
| 1:52.0 | You had new job openings today better than expected. |
| 1:55.0 | This is the Joltz number that we talk about a lot when we look at if the labor market is balanced between how many people are employed, |
| 2:01.0 | how many people are looking for jobs, and how many job openings are there. We were expecting |
| 2:05.2 | $7.3 million and we got $7.769 million. So that's a decent amount above, which is a bullish |
| 2:11.8 | sign because you have employers that are posting new job openings, meaning they're trying |
... |
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