Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Tuesday, April the 29th. Brian Sightel is with you here from our Newport Beach, California headquarters at the

Bonson Group. On a day that started off even at best, we were actually lower at the start of the

morning and then Gainsteam right around 10 o'clock or so Pacific, our time here in California,

when some auto tariff easement was announced from the White House. So that brought markets

back up. Markets have been up now, at least on the S&P, for six days in a row. So quite an improvement

on some oversold conditions, and I've written about that quite a bit when sentiment is so

negative and positioning is so tilted underweight from an overweight that things can

likely often sometimes get a little bit better

than otherwise feared. But all that to say, markets are cooperating here last week or really two

weeks. Dow was up 300 points. S&P was up about half of a percent, as was the NASDAQ. The

treasuries were former across the warden price, meaning rates dropped a little bit,

10-year was down, three bases points to 417.

So a little bit of curve flattening here, albeit it's still a very steep yield curve.

The difference between two-year treasuries and 30 is about 1%.

So it's a decent amount of steepness, and that's usually technically a good sign for markets.

It's just that short end of the curve is what is still inverted, and so, which means that the Fed is still overly restrictive,

and that's why there's about a 60% chance that they'll start cutting rates in June.

And what is priced in is somewhere between three and four rate cuts before the end of the year.

So we'll call that about 1%.

So if we're at about 4.5 to 4.5, that brings us to about 3.5 to 3.5.

That's likely near a terminal, barring any economic data, not changing much.

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