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The Indicator from Planet Money

Trying to solve the mystery of big bond yields

The Indicator from Planet Money

NPR

Business

4.79.5K Ratings

🗓️ 1 November 2023

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

If you're wincing at high interest rates on a potential loan right now, it's not just you. And the Federal Reserve's rate hikes actually isn't (entirely) to blame either. There's another culprit: the rate of a return, or yield, on a Treasury bond issued by the U.S.

Today, we explore why this bond yield is so important and why it's at its highest level in years.

Related Episodes
The rat under the Fed's hat (Spotify/Apple Podcasts)

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Transcript

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0:00.0

N-P-R.

0:12.0

This is the Indicated from Planet Money. I'm Adrian Ma.

0:14.0

And I'm Wayland Wong.

0:16.0

I am sure you've noticed that it is getting more expensive to borrow money.

0:20.0

Oh yeah.

0:21.0

Mortgage rates are at 8%.

0:23.0

The average rate on a new credit card is around 24%.

0:28.0

Yeah, if you're wincing at these higher rates, your first insight might be to give the Federal Reserve some side eye.

0:34.0

I mean, they have raised interest rates like 11 times since last year.

0:39.0

And those rate hikes push up other interest rates in the economy.

0:42.0

But there is another big influence when it comes to rates.

0:46.0

A heavy hitter that helps set the tone for mortgages and credit cards and student loans.

0:51.0

And that is the 10-year U.S. Treasury.

0:55.0

Yes, the 10-year Treasury bond issued by the U.S. government.

0:59.0

Now, the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which is another way of saying the rate of return you get on it,

1:05.0

this yield has been on a tear, climbing to levels not seen in years.

1:10.0

And even though the Fed decided to pause their interest rate hikes in September and today,

1:14.0

this 10-year yield has gone up and up.

1:17.0

And it's taken mortgage rates and credit card APRs with it.

1:22.0

People in bond markets have been scratching their heads over why the 10-year yield keeps climbing higher and higher.

1:29.0

So today on the show, we tease out some potential explanations.

1:33.0

And we meet a small business owner who's grappling with higher borrowing costs while trying to also expand his company.

...

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