Trumped Up Rate Hikes – Ep. 200
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
Peter Schiff
4.6 • 5.9K Ratings
🗓️ 5 October 2016
⏱️ 35 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
* This is my 200th podcast and I looked back to the date of the first one and it was just over 2 years ago, September 2014
* I began this podcast shortly after I ended the Peter Schiff Radio Show
* I hope everybody is enjoying these podcasts and if you like what you're listening to, help turn on other people to the same information
* Statements early this morning by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker certainly sent tremors through the precious metals markets
* Gold tumbled over $40/oz; closing $1268 and change
* This is the first time we've actually been below $1300 in the last few months
* Silver down just over a buck; 17.78
* It wasn't that long ago that we'd gotten above $20
* It was even worse for gold and silver mining stocks; this was the worse day of the year for those stocks
* The markets closed right near the lows of the day
* There was a big sell-off right after those statements came out and there was no reprieve
* The dollar was stronger on the day, although not against the euro
* There were some rumors that the European Central Bank may begin to taper its QE program
* That held the euro steady against the dollar
* The weak currencies were the yen and the pound which was "pounded" again to about a new 35-year low
* On concerns that we might have a hard Brexit rather than a soft Brexit
* This is more a matter of the yen and pound weakness today than dollar strength
* The bond market was weaker on the day, closing near the lows
* The Dow, though, only off about 85 points
* If the markets really believe that a rate hike is coming, which is clearly what the metals traders seem to believe
* I think the stock market should be even weaker
* Although probably what's helping the stock market is the strength in the financials
* Because as I have said before, people actually believe that higher interest rates are good for the financials
* So the fear of higher rates actually lifted the financials, which helped support the market
* But people who think the Fed is going to raise rates, and that higher rates are good for the financials
* They're wrong twice, because the Fed's probably not going to raise rates and if they did, it would be horrible for financials
* They might get lucky, though because they'd be wrong on the rate hike and would not then lose as much had the Fed actually raised rates
* I want to go over the Lacker's statement that started all the turmoil: What did this guy say that caused everybody to jump to the conclusion that the Fed's about to hike rates?
* The probability of a rate hike had been rising; it didn't just start today, but the probability did notch up a bit
* They're now looking at a 60% chance of a December rate hike, but there's a 25% chance now of a November rate hike
* The November meeting is one week before the election why would people think the Fed would take a chance on an adverse market reaction to a rate hike a week before the election?
*
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Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | The Peter Ship Show. |
| 0:09.8 | This is my 200th podcast and I looked back to the date of the first one and it was just |
| 0:16.2 | over two years ago. |
| 0:17.6 | It was September 2014 that I did the very first podcast and if you remember I began the |
| 0:25.2 | podcast shortly after I ended the Peter Ship Radio Show. |
| 0:31.3 | But I hope everybody is enjoying these podcasts. |
| 0:35.2 | So if you like what you're listening to help turn on other people to the same information. |
| 0:40.0 | Well, statements early this morning by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker certainly sent |
| 0:46.4 | tremor through the precious metals market. |
| 0:49.8 | Gold tumbled over $40 an ounce, closing $1268 in change. |
| 0:54.8 | This is the first time we've actually been below $1300 I think in the last few months. |
| 0:59.5 | Silver down just over a buck, $1778. |
| 1:02.7 | It wasn't too long ago that we had just gotten back above 20 and now we're below the 18 |
| 1:08.5 | handle. |
| 1:09.5 | But it was even worse for gold and silver mining stocks, which were just pummel. |
| 1:14.5 | This is the worst day of the year for those stocks. |
| 1:17.2 | I think the indexes were down about 10% on the day with many stocks, individual stocks, |
| 1:23.0 | around more than that. |
| 1:25.2 | And the markets closed right near the lows of the day. |
| 1:28.2 | So it was a big sell off right after those statements came out and it continued and there |
| 1:34.1 | was no reprieve for those stocks at all. |
| 1:37.6 | The dollar was also stronger on the day. |
... |
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