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Bulwark Takes

Trump’s New Voters Are Already Bailing

Bulwark Takes

The Bulwark

News, News Commentary, Politics, Society & Culture

4.71.1K Ratings

🗓️ 22 January 2026

⏱️ 14 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Tim Miller gives his take on the latest New York Times/Siena poll and the results should worry Trump and the Republican Party. Trump's much-touted 2024 coalition is unraveling, especially among young voters and non-white voters who helped power his return to office. The MAGA realignment didn’t stick with 56% of Americans disapproving of Trump's job as president.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hey everybody, it's Tim Miller for the bulwark. There's a new poll out from the New York Times and Sienna.

0:06.0

And viewers of the channel know I've been, I've been picky and juicy about wanting to get into poll content.

0:11.5

We're far away from another election. You know, these things have margin of errors. We've been burned before.

0:17.5

But every once in a while something comes out that I think really distills something

0:22.6

very important about our moment. And this New York Times Siena poll, I think, has revealed something

0:29.2

that is important to break down about Donald Trump's declining political standing. And I think this is important because the Trump's declining political standing.

0:38.7

And I think this is important because the Trump win in 2024 was, you know, a nightmare on so many different vectors.

0:49.3

But one thing that I think was especially concerning for a lot of us was the way that he managed to

0:57.8

cobble together a new coalition that he hadn't had in 2016 and 20 and that he brought in a lot of

1:03.9

new voters particularly young voters particularly uh black and Hispanic men.

1:13.7

There's some other groups too, but those are the two main groups.

1:21.3

And, you know, for those of us kind of look projecting out, I mean, if this is a realignment where Republican, agribunublicans are doing better among young voters, among black and brown men,

1:28.6

among people who don't show up to the polls that much,

1:31.0

like that's an important realignment that,

1:33.2

that makes us a bunch more susceptible to some kind of permanent quasi-maga authoritarianism.

1:40.5

Caviate always applying,

1:41.8

assuming we,

1:42.8

you know,

1:42.9

have free and fair elections,

1:43.9

et cetera, et cetera.

1:46.0

So the Sienna poll, I think, is important not just because Donald Trump's approval rate is shit.

1:53.9

And let me tell you, Donald Trump's approval rate is shit.

...

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