Well, Trump, he's issued another ultimatum, though not to Iran, rather to NATO, reportedly

telling members of the alliance that they must commit warships or other military assets to secure the Strait of Hormuz where they're going to get punished. Right, because even though the ceasefire that he announced is supposed to mean that the straits already open, there's almost been no traffic through the waterway yet. And Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon, they're threatening to blow up whatever fragile peace somehow seems to be holding. But where we should start is with NATO, and what I think is some very important context.

Right. Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, the one that says an attack on one is an attack on all, it has only been invoked once. It was invoked by the United States after 9-11, and more than 1,100 non-U.S. troops were killed in the subsequent war in Afghanistan. And Trump, long before today, he's cast doubt on whether he would actually defend NATO allies if they invoked Article 5.

And that's as he's also insulted them, tariffed them, threatened their territory, threatened their territory using tariffs, and, let's say, complicated efforts to deal with the Russian war of aggression on their doorstep. And he and his administration are now also campaigning for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who's seeking re-election this weekend and who is threatened to allied unity while actively working against Ukraine. We're talking about a man that reportedly literally told Putin in a phone call last year, I am at your service. And you have all of this, says the war that Trump's complaining NATO allies won't help him with, it is a war that he started by choice with no real self-defense rationale and without consulting them. And despite all of that, the realities of the world, who had White House Press Secretary

Caroline Levitt yesterday sharing what she said was a direct quote from the president on NATO.

They were tested and they failed.

Leavitt also at the behest of the president, accused members of the alliance of turning their backs

on the American people and said that Trump was looking forward to having a very frank and candid conversation with NATO Secretary General Mark Ruta. With the secretary arriving to address Trump's so-called concerns about NATO's refusal to get involved in the war, and he's been called kind of the Trump whisper for his ability to deal with the president. An ability that seems to just be his willingness to shamelessly kiss Trump's ass in public and in private. An approach, I'll say, that has been increasingly criticized by some NATO members, especially for his decision to support the Iran war. Except this time, it didn't seem to work with Trump writing on social media after the meeting. NATO wasn't there when we needed them, and they won't be there if we need them again. Remember Greenland, that big, poorly run piece of ice. He didn't let stop him, telling CNN that he can see Trump's point, that he really admires Trump's leadership, and that the world is absolutely safer thanks to Trump. And then on top of that, Ruta argued that overall, NATO allies ended up providing significant support to the U.S. for the war in Iran in terms of logistics, basing, and other measures, which does seem to be true. seem to be true. And then in addition to that, you had him noting that NATO countries are looking for what they can do to contribute to keeping the straight of Hormuz open with assets including warships as well as minesweepers and radar technology. But again, that was what he said publicly. And according to a major German newspaper, he privately told European leaders that Trump was expecting those concrete commitments within the next few days. And he was several European diplomats reportedly saying that Trump's demand it amounted to an ultimatum, although it's not

exactly clear what the consequences will be. Because in addition to a number of things, he's

already threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, which also isn't something he technically can do by

himself. Though you also had the Wall Street Journal reporting that the White House is considering a plan

to punish NATO members that Trump thinks have been unhelpful,

and that could apparently involve pulling American troops out of those countries or even closing down bases. Right, and then as far as countries that have been seen as supportive of the White House, if this happened, they could apparently end up getting more troops. Which actually ends up being very notable and interesting because, I mean, we'd mostly be talking about countries on Europe's eastern flank. So like Romania and Poland and so Russia probably wouldn't be a huge fan of that.

Although to be very clear, the fallout from the Iran War has largely benefited Putin. It has served as a fantastic distraction from his war in Ukraine and it's driven up oil prices. You have Reuters reporting today that Russia's main oil revenue, it's going to double to $9 billion this month month thanks to the oil and gas crisis triggered by the US and Israeli attack on Iran. And then of course any potential upside for NATO countries, it's going to double to $9 billion this month thanks to the oil and gas crisis triggered

by the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran. And then, of course, any potential upside for NATO countries, it's not offset by the damage that Trump may be doing to the alliance overall. And while we don't know exactly which countries Trump's talking about, some strong contenders on the list, Spain would probably be at the top of the list. But it's the only country that hasn't agreed to spending 5% of its GDP on defense. It's denied the use of its bases and airspace for planes involved in the war.

And its prime minister has been top of the list. Right, it's the only country that hasn't agreed to spending 5% of its GDP on defense. It's denied the use of its bases and airspace for planes involved in the war.

And its prime minister has been especially outspoken in his criticism of the conflict. Right, with him saying in a post after the so-called ceasefire began, this momentary relief cannot make us forget the chaos, the destruction, and the lives lost. saying, the government of Spain will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket.

And actually today, you had him calling for the EU to suspend its association agreement with Israel, saying that Netanyahu's contempt for life and international law is intolerable. And actually since then, several European officials, including from Spain, but also the UK, France, Italy, and the EU, they have slammed Israel for their continued assault on Lebanon. With, for example, Italy's foreign minister describing the attacks on Lebanon as unjustified and unacceptable in adding, we want to avoid there being a second Gaza. But as we've talked about, the U.S. and Israel, they've argued that the ceasefire does not cover Lebanon. That's even though Pakistan's prime minister, who mediated the talks and the ceasefire, said in his post announcing the truths that it applied

everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere. And that ends up just being one of the reasons you have many wondering, is this ceasefire real? Is it actually going to hold on? Because the two sides aren't even agreeing on what they agreed to, at least in public. Because when Trump announced the deal, he claimed that the U.S. had received a 10-point proposal from Iran that provided a workable basis on which to negotiate.

And people were immediately confused

because he had previously said that a 10-point plan that he received from Iran was not good enough. And then when Iran released what they said were the 10 points, they included not only an end to the war in Lebanon, but demands that the US would seemingly never accept. We're talking about things like the withdrawal of American troops from the region, continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz

and the acknowledgement of Iran's right to nuclear enrichment.

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