Trump’s deadly Iran gamble – Special from This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Oh God, What Now?

Podmasters

News, Society & Culture, Politics

4.6 • 2.6K Ratings

🗓️ 2 March 2026

⏱️ 28 minutes

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Summary

A special crossover edition from our geopolitics podcast This Is Not A Drill – Trump’s stunning surprise attack on Iran could be the most consequential world event since 9/11. Will the President’s goal of smooth regime change work when it failed every other time, or trigger a regional conflagration? Iran’s hated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead but the Islamic Republic is showing no sign of collapsing. And now Hezbollah has attacked other Arab states as well as British and US military targets. How will the war play out? How resilient is the Islamic Republic? Does Israel want regime change or regime destruction? Does Iran have any potential leaders that the US could tolerate? And has anyone planned for running a country of 90 million people which is now in chaos? Live from Beirut our guest Paul Salem, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, speaks to Gavin Esler. • Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people? Some 3.5 MILLION people download and watch our podcasts every month – and they love our shows. Why not get YOUR brand in front of our influential listeners with podcast advertising? Contact ads@podmasters.co.uk to find out more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hello, it's Andrew here. After America's attack on Iran over the weekend, we thought that our
0:04.8	partner podcast, This Is Not a Drill with Gavin Ezler, was much better place to cover the story
0:09.8	than Oh God What Now. So here's their latest emergency edition. We hope you find it useful.
0:14.9	Your next episode of Oh God What Now will follow as scheduled.
0:22.5	American and Israeli military strikes on Iran may be a shock, but they're hardly a surprise.
0:28.2	Two U.S. carrier battlegroups recently positioned in the region amounting to the largest
0:32.7	American military presence in the Middle East in decades.
0:36.4	The USS Abraham Lincoln Battle Group has been in
0:39.0	the Arabian Sea since January, and the USS Gerald R. Ford is off Israel's coast. They're
0:45.4	supported by dozens of other warships and at least 150 U.S. military aircraft. The American Big Stick
0:52.2	was being prepared alongside diplomatic negotiations about Iran's nuclear
0:56.4	program, negotiations that of course have ended. So what led to the White House decision to
1:02.5	attack? Were the nuclear negotiations merely a deliberate distraction? And what is the supposed
1:08.3	endgame? Is regime change by bombing realistic?
1:12.5	And above all, is this new conflict a triumph of hope
1:15.8	over repeated American experiences in the Middle East?
1:19.4	We'll get an expert view on another U.S. president
1:22.2	and another unpredictable war in the Middle East.
1:26.2	I'm Gavin Esler, and this is not a drill. Is the Trump administration game plan in Iran the triumph of hope over past experiences?
1:57.2	And what have other states drawn into the fighting, including not just Israel, but also the United Arab Emirates?
2:03.4	I'm joined now from Beirut by Paul Salem, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and founder of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
2:10.7	Paul, welcome again to This is Not a Drill.
	...

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