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Bloomberg Surveillance

Traders Watch for Weakening Signs amid Market Highs

Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg

News, Investing, Business News, Business

41.1K Ratings

🗓️ 1 July 2025

⏱️ 36 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJuly 1st, 2025
Featuring:
1) Bob Michele, CIO: Fixed Income at JPMorgan Asset Management, joins for an extended discussion on the outlook for yields and why there could be more bond investment in 2025. The 10-year Treasury yield declined four basis points to 4.19% in the early morning as investors increased wagers on the scale of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.
2) Cam Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, talks about equity all-time highs and raising the pain trade. US equity futures retreated slightly after the S&P 500 notched its best quarter since 2023, as investors monitor progress on trade talks and wrangling in Washington over President Trump’s tax bill.
3) George Goncalves, Head: US Macro Strategy MUFG Securities, Americas, talks about the outlook for US economic growth should the tax bill pass and his economic projections for 2025 as the labor market shows signs of weakening. Investors are also watching for a slew of economic data, including PMI readings and the US job openings report, ahead of Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls, and a discussion on monetary policy at the European Central Bank’s annual retreat.
4) Michael Lasser, Equity Research Analyst: Consumer Hardline Staples at UBS, explores the potential ramifications of the bill on an aggregate consumer spending level, as well as the potential impacts for each consumer subsector and individual stocks. US consumer spending declined 0.3% in May, the most since the start of the year, indicating uncertainty around the Trump administration's economic policies is weighing on growth.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a story from The Athletic on ESPN and MLB resuming broadcasting rights talks and a WSJ story on why the July 4th BBG may get more expensive.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is an IHeart podcast.

0:04.4

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

0:09.2

Podcasts, Radio News.

0:16.4

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

0:19.8

Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app.

0:26.8

Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

0:31.9

Bob Michael and J.P. Morgan.

0:33.7

We're going to try to get him in here.

0:34.8

You have an outlook out there and I see an outlook of price up yield down.

0:39.3

Is that the outlook at JP Morgan?

0:41.3

Yes, it is.

0:43.3

We're off to a fantastic start for the third quarter, probably not a repeat of the second quarter

0:48.3

with all the volatility, but some expectation of the Fed bringing rates down by the end of the year.

0:55.0

In the bond world, is there fear of missing out?

0:58.0

Is there FOMO among bond buyers?

1:01.0

We're starting to feel that now.

1:04.0

There are more and more conversations with clients who are in cash

1:09.0

looking for an opportunity to get into the bond market and trying to figure out where in the bond market to go.

1:16.9

There's still a ton of money in money market funds and in cash accounts, deposit accounts, checking accounts, savings accounts.

1:26.6

The last time we looked it was over

1:28.3

$21 trillion, which was a new high. Bob, we saw earlier in the year a move of capital out of

1:36.0

the U.S. into other markets, notably the European equity markets, and they're outperforming the U.S.

...

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