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The Property Podcast

TPP594: Has the 18 Year Property Cycle failed us?

The Property Podcast

Rob Bence & Rob Dix

Investing, Education, Business News, News, Business

4.82K Ratings

🗓️ 1 August 2024

⏱️ 29 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Since the early days of the podcast, Rob & Rob have been guided by a little something you may have heard of called the 18-Year Property Cycle. This has been a compass for many, designed to make property investment more predictable and help you make informed decisions. But predictability sparks curiosity: where are we in the cycle? Is it on track... has it failed us this time around? Join us as The Robs share their views and provide answers to your questions. Will they continue to rely on the cycle, or are they finally done with it? (0:45) News story of the week (5:02) 18-year property cycle update… (6:04) Lets recap on what the cycle actually is (10:06) Why are we questioning it?  (16:27) What’s the reason it may not be playing out? (18:30) Will The Robs continue to use the cycle?  (26:21) Hub Extra  Links mentioned: Rayner unveils housing reform plan to get Britain building No details of Renters Rights Bill camelcamelcamel Enjoy the show? Leave us a review on Apple Podcasts - it really helps others find us! Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, Property Pulse Find out more about Property Hub Invest

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Hey everyone it's Rob B here with Rob D and you are listening to the

0:05.6

Property podcast and this week we get into a deep conversation we talk about our

0:11.4

beloved 18-year property cycle in a way we've never before a warning some people may find this episode upsetting Welcome to the Property Podcast. Thank you for joining us. In case you don't know, every year

0:29.7

we buy more than a hundred million pounds worth of property for our clients and

0:33.0

ourselves and this is the show where we share some of what we've learned along

0:36.2

the way. Today we are talking about the property cycle. Is it dead? Is it just

0:40.4

resting? We share our views in this episode and as Rob said it is going to get a bit emotional.

0:46.0

It's time for our news story of the week and we are going to talk about house building targets in the UK.

0:51.6

Now we have always had targets, but until very very recently in the last few days actually, they have been optional targets, more of a guiding or an aspiration, but labour have changed things and now those targets have become mandatory and each council has to build a certain amount of properties and it is actually

1:18.0

broken down of what each area needs to deliver.

1:21.2

Now we're not going to get into that detail here, but the interesting thing is all these numbers added together, Rob, reaches

1:29.0

370,000 new homes each year.

1:33.5

And remember this is mandatory.

1:35.3

Last year, we were 230,000.

1:39.6

So not quite double, but a huge increase from what we have been doing and before it was

1:45.6

optional it'd be nice skies if you got there and now it's mandatory for councils I

1:51.2

don't know what that means Rob I don't know what that means Rob. I don't know what happens to

1:54.8

the naughty councils that don't deliver their targets, but it's a big old number that one.

1:59.6

It'll be the biggest, certainly I'm aware of, that we've ever done in a single year.

2:04.8

Certainly in our lifetimes, maybe after the Second World War, but that gives you an idea in the

2:09.1

21 years we've both been alive. We've never hit that number.

2:12.6

No, I don't know what this means either.

...

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