TIP146: Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Predicting (Business Podcast)
The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Stig Brodersen
4.6 • 3.6K Ratings
🗓️ 8 July 2017
⏱️ 41 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're listening to TIP. |
| 0:03.0 | So a few months ago, we had a huge name and finance on our show. |
| 0:07.0 | And the gentleman's name is Ed Thorpe. |
| 0:10.0 | And Ed Thorpe, his personal net worth, is around $900 million. |
| 0:15.0 | And during our discussion, I was talking to Ed Thorpe about certain ideas about what might happen in the future, |
| 0:21.0 | particularly about central banking. |
| 0:24.0 | And I asked Ed a really difficult question, |
| 0:27.0 | and I was kind of expecting him to tell me, |
| 0:29.0 | yeah, I think there's a high probability that that might be the case with respect to central banks. |
| 0:34.0 | And what I got back from him was kind of an interesting response. |
| 0:38.0 | Ed basically said to me, I have no idea. |
| 0:41.0 | And he responded so quickly without any hesitation that it just shocked me. |
| 0:46.0 | And during that interview, Ed said, you know, you really got to read this book called Super Forecasting |
| 0:52.0 | by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. |
| 0:55.0 | And because of that interview and because of that moment that I experienced with Ed Thorpe |
| 1:00.0 | and how he responded to this question about forecasting. |
| 1:04.0 | And then he recommended this book for us to read. |
| 1:07.0 | That's why we decided to do this episode today on Super Forecasting. |
| 1:12.0 | And everyone really forecast whether about it's the weather, |
| 1:15.0 | beating the morning traffic or it's the financial markets. |
| 1:19.0 | And while forecasting might appear to be a game, |
| 1:22.0 | it's in fact very real and the stakes are high and substantial. |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Stig Brodersen, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Stig Brodersen and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.