Tim Hayes - The Base Case Is We’re Still In The Same Secular Bull Market That We’ve Been In Since 2009 | #192

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

The Idea Farm

Management, Investing, Business

4.8 • 978 Ratings

🗓️ 11 December 2019

⏱️ 59 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In episode 192 we welcome our guest, Tim Hayes. Tim and Meb kick off the conversation with an overview of the data driven Ned Davis research process and how the team gains an understanding of what is going on the market. Meb then asks Tim to expand on his current thoughts on the market. Tim covers the potential tactical opportunity in the market and the base case for the US stock market, that it’s in the same secular bull market it’s been in since 2009. He also notes that there is a risk to the bond market and that it’s late in the secular game. The conversation then shifts to discussion about negative yielding bonds. Meb and Tim then touch on the worries Tim is seeing from institutional investors. As the conversation winds down, Tim covers his belief that it is critical to be aware, and constantly watch what relationships are changing in markets to gauge what is relevant. All this and more in episode 192. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Mebb Faver Show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth.
0:11.0	Join us as we discuss the craft of investing and
0:13.5	uncover new and profitable ideas all to help you grow wealthier and wiser.
0:17.2	Better investing starts here.
0:18.8	Matt Faber is the co-founder and chief investment officer at Cambria Investment Management.
0:23.3	Did it industry regulations, he will not discuss any of Cambry's funds on this podcast.
0:27.2	All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion
0:31.1	of Cambria Investment management or its affiliates.
0:33.4	For more information, visit Cambria Investments.com.
0:36.5	Welcome podcast listeners. We got a great show for you today as the year is winding down.
0:45.2	Our guest is joining us from Londontown. He's the chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis
0:50.2	research and he's been there since 1986. He directs NDR's global
0:55.0	asset allocation services, develop strategy, major investment themes, and
0:59.0	establishes Ned Davis's weightings for global asset allocation. He's also the author of the research-driven investor.
1:05.6	In today's episode we dive into their whole research process at Ned Davis.
1:10.0	We explore Tim's current base case for US stocks, still being a secular bull market,
1:14.4	and what scenarios are probabilistic going forward, including what conditions we'll need to see
1:18.7	for an environment of double-digit annualized returns. We also cover commodities and in particular
1:24.3	gold an area of interest for the NDR team right now. We also discuss some themes of
1:29.5	worry among institutional investors and the insight that is in an environment of capital
1:33.7	preservation with a high level of risk aversion.
1:36.7	This episode is brought to you by 10 East. Long time listeners know I've invested in private markets quite a bit myself
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