Thursday - September 18, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 18 September 2025
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Market Update and Fed Rate Impact Discussion - September 18
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group gives a market update on September 18th, detailing the DOW's performance with a rise of 124 points following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points. He highlights the positive movements in the S&P and NASDAQ, and discusses the implications of rising 10-year yields. Sitel provides insights into the historical impacts of rate cuts on the stock market, explaining how short-term and long-term rates affect small caps and Main Street respectively. Additionally, he addresses the complex dynamics of the Fed's balance sheet and its broader economic implications. He concludes with key economic data, including a substantial Philly Fed Manufacturing survey and improved jobless claims, reflecting a positive market sentiment. Viewers are encouraged to reach out with questions and to look forward to another detailed analysis in the next Dividend Cafe episode.
00:00 Introduction and Market Update
02:19 Impact of Interest Rate Cuts
03:15 Fed Balance Sheet and Economic Indicators
04:44 Economic Data Highlights
05:20 Conclusion and Sign-Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.1 | Welcome into Dividend Cafe. This is Thursday, September the 18th. Brian Saitel is with you here from our West, Palm Beach, Florida, office here at the |
| 0:23.2 | Bonson Group on a rainy day here. An update overall at markets. The Dow closed up 124 points. |
| 0:30.0 | We got some follow-through from some decent movement or reaction, I suppose, from the Fed movement |
| 0:35.3 | yesterday on interest rates being cut by 25 basis points. |
| 0:40.1 | The S&P was up about a half of a percent. |
| 0:43.3 | Decent move there and then the NASDAQ was up about nine-tenths of a percent. |
| 0:47.8 | Ten-year yields that crept up yesterday as well, a couple of basis points, continued. |
| 0:52.8 | They were up about four basis points and we closed at 411. |
| 0:56.8 | Remember intraday yesterday, we did cross 4%. |
| 1:00.1 | We got to 399 and now we're back to 412 here on tens. |
| 1:04.3 | So modestly higher on interest rates, that's not necessarily a bad thing. |
| 1:09.7 | It's the bond market telling you that there may be more |
| 1:12.8 | growth in to come here in the future. I don't think it's necessarily related to an excessive |
| 1:19.3 | amount of borrowing here, but time will tell on how that plays out. Again, I cited yesterday, |
| 1:24.9 | both credit spreads remain very tight, and then on the long end of the |
| 1:28.4 | curve, it'll be interesting to see how the shape of the yield curve here develops over the next |
| 1:32.9 | couple of weeks. In the meantime, I thought it was interesting to just look at the number of |
| 1:38.5 | different large shell-side banks citing different historical periods of rates being cut in what that means as far as |
| 1:46.3 | percentage terms in the stock market the next 12 months. Think of all the major ones. They all had |
| 1:51.0 | something to say about it. For the most part, they were positive historically. So they were |
| 1:55.0 | statistically citing things like that. I think that's all fine and good. And I'm certainly not one |
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