Thursday - October 30, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 30 October 2025
⏱️ 9 minutes
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Summary
Market Recap: Market Decline and In-Depth Analysis of Financial Trends
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market recap for October 30th, detailing a downturn with the Dow closing down 109 points, the S&P down 1%, and the Nasdaq down 1.5%. Key factors include interest rate increases post-Fed meeting and disappointing earnings from some social media companies. Brian discusses benchmarks for investment performance, advocating for goal-based evaluation over market comparison. He also covers the midstream energy sector, emphasizing a strategic approach using active ETFs to optimize returns and tax efficiency. Additionally, Brian touches on a temporary trade truce between the US and China, projecting long-term benefits for both economies through gradual decoupling. The episode concludes with a brief on market headwinds due to earnings reports and rising interest rates.
00:00 Introduction and Market Recap
00:30 Interest Rates and Fed Policy
01:26 Choosing the Right Benchmark
03:20 Midstream Energy Investments
05:20 US-China Trade Agreement
06:42 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:11.8 | Good evening and welcome into Dividend Cafe. This is Thursday, October the 30th. Brian Saitel is with you here to go through your daily market recap here on a bit of a down day. The Dow ended up closing down about 109 points. S&P was down 1%. Nasdaq was down 1.5%. So you had some Mag 7 related names have some good earnings today and then a couple of notable. The social media names have some |
| 0:38.3 | disappointment. And so the NASDAQ ended up being down more than the other indices. The other thing |
| 0:43.3 | you're seeing in markets right now is interest rates since the Fed meeting ended have started to |
| 0:47.7 | creep back up. So 10-year treasury was up two basis points on the day, closing to 409. We had been in the |
| 0:54.0 | high 390s for a while. |
| 0:56.3 | So rates have crept back up and Fed futures have also crept down, indicating the December |
| 1:01.7 | rate cut is a less likely scenario. But I think as the end of quantitative tightening |
| 1:07.1 | continues to work itself through markets, which is basically a de facto rate cut in the |
| 1:12.5 | sense of an easing financial condition. And also as more data starts to come out, remember, |
| 1:18.0 | the government is still shut down. So there isn't a lot of data coming out. I think markets will |
| 1:22.4 | understand that the likeliest path is towards a lower Fed funds rate. And the target that we've |
| 1:27.1 | always talked about is about a 1% real Fed funds rate. |
| 1:31.3 | So something over inflation. |
| 1:33.3 | Of course, there's a variable on what inflation will ultimately settle out. |
| 1:36.3 | But that's my take on what's going on. |
| 1:38.3 | I wrote something just Evergreen today. |
| 1:40.3 | And it was really just about a question that comes up a lot. |
| 1:43.3 | And during different periods of time, you could have markets be very good. Technically, that's where we're at. We've had |
| 1:48.6 | three up years in a row of double digits in the S&P 500. And so sometimes this question is rooted |
| 1:54.4 | in kind of a FOMO idea of fear missing out, but it's which benchmark should I use to compare |
| 2:00.0 | how I'm doing? It's a fair question, |
... |
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