Thursday October 19th, 2023 - NFL Odds, Picks and Analysis
The Simple Handicap: Daily NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff
Adam Chernoff
4.8 • 1.3K Ratings
🗓️ 19 October 2023
⏱️ 15 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The Simple Handicap for Thursday, October 19th, 2023
Week 7 Preview Live Stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHXYtFedloA
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Good morning, everybody, the simple handicapped for Thursday, October 19th. |
| 0:04.1 | Thank you for making me a part of your morning. |
| 0:05.9 | We are trying out a new microphone here on the podcast this morning. |
| 0:09.0 | So hopefully it doesn't sound too drastically different, and we can maybe make this audio a little bit cleaner. |
| 0:14.2 | Trying to get the podcast sounding better for everybody who listens to the headphones on their morning commute, |
| 0:19.1 | walking the dog, whatever you might be doing each and every morning. |
| 0:21.5 | So any feedback that you might be able to share would be much appreciated. I just want to bring something up because I found out about it yesterday. And it's actually really cool. So on YouTube, when you leave a comment on a video, I'm talking about the week seven preview, for example. When you comment |
| 0:39.3 | down below, YouTube now has a feature, which I didn't know about, where it allows me to respond |
| 0:45.6 | with a YouTube short within the comment. And so if you're interested, because either you listen |
| 0:51.5 | to the podcast, you're going to be betting the games, whatever you |
| 0:54.9 | might be doing. And you want to ask a question as the week goes on in response to this podcast |
| 1:00.0 | or elsewhere about the NFL games this week, go into the week seven preview that I have |
| 1:05.9 | with the link in the description and just leave the comment down below, especially if you've |
| 1:09.5 | already watched the video, really actually helps me out with making a lot of short form content. So if that's something that you're interested in or you want to get answered, please go ahead and do that. I appreciate everybody who jumped over to the live stream yesterday and watched the show. It's trending right now to be the biggest one that I've done so far this season. So I appreciate all the support. But if you want to make it a little more interactive beyond the show, that's now an option. And it's pretty cool, too. So thank you for the people who have left them. I got a really good one about Josh Jacobs, was able to answer that. It's actually very, very fun for me. So if you want to take advantage of that. That is now open every week that we do one of those live streams. Let's get to the market run down for NFL week number seven. Jags on the road at the Saints. New Orleans is a one-point favorite. As I've said all week, I like the Saints. I like him at one. We saw yesterday Nathan Roark, Canadian, quarterback, electric, hopefully, and this sucks, right, because you have to root for injury. |
| 2:01.5 | But hopefully he gets a chance to play at some point. It's probably not tonight, but we'll see. |
| 2:06.0 | But I think that his status being elevated from the practice squad kind of gives you a glimpse |
| 2:09.8 | into what's going on within the Jags QB room. I like the Saints at one, assuming that the |
| 2:15.0 | Jags will be playing Lawrence at 70%. I think the drop off the Bethard matters. I think if Lawrence does not start, you're getting this at 3. If Lawrence does start, it's probably isn't going to go past pick. So I like the Saints in this game. I think the Jags, other injuries are significant, lowers this team down. That's kind of where I'm at with this game. So that's something to keep an eye on as you get into the game tonight. Jump to Sunday. Falcons on the road at the Buccaneers. Total continues to come down. 36 and a half. My goodness, two and a half is the number for the Buccaneers across the screen. Falcons are a terrific teaser like. You want a teaser right now that I would look at Atlanta teased up, |
| 2:56.2 | and then you could either look at San Francisco or Buffalo teased down. Those would be two legs that I would definitely look at and consider for the weekend ahead. You can make it a three-team |
| 3:00.9 | or if you can get a three-team six-pointer at plus 155 or better. That's a really good bet to make, |
| 3:07.0 | too, when you're looking at these basic strategy numbers. I think the Buccaneers' offense is in a really tough spot. When you're looking at how well they've done on third down, compared to what they do on first and second down, that's going to be problematic. They're now stepping up to face this Falcons defense, which has done really, really well. I think we see the Falcons throw the football a lot, just like they did a week ago as well with how the Buccaneers are very likely to stack the box against Atlanta. So I think the Falcons are going to be competitive. You can maybe wait it out and see if you get a three. We've been kind of leaning there all week with this at two and a half across the board. Hasn't threatened the three yet. Don't know if we get there, but I think the Falcons absolutely the side in this one. Raiders, Bears, it's going to be Badgant for Chicago. I'll say that with a 95% confidence level. I don't think it's going to be Garoppolo. I'll say 60% he misses. That's because he was a non-participant with his back injury. Wednesday doesn't |
| 3:58.7 | necessarily bode well. I do not know which of the backup the Raiders are going to go to. |
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