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The Dividend Cafe

Thursday - May 29, 2025

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Dividend Growth Investing, Investing, Estate Planning, Monetary Policy, Wealth Management, Business, Retirement Planning, Macro Economics

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 29 May 2025

⏱️ 8 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Market Updates, Tariffs Overruling, and Economic Indicators

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from the West Palm Beach, Florida office discusses the day's positive market movements and notable economic events. Key topics include the overruling of tariffs by the US International Trade Court, revisions to Q1 GDP, jobless claims, and pending home sales data. The episode also addresses questions about high-frequency trading and rising treasury yields, emphasizing the potential deflationary impact of global indebtedness and market dynamics. Brian provides insights into the factors affecting market volatility and offers a preview of upcoming inflation data.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:35 Impact of US Trade Court Ruling on Tariffs

01:41 Economic Indicators and Employment Data

03:01 High Frequency Trading and Market Volatility

03:46 Rising Treasury Yields and Global Debt

06:33 Conclusion and Upcoming Insights

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:12.2

Welcome to Dividend Cafe this Thursday, May the 29th. Brian Sightel is with you here from our West Palm Beach, Florida office.

0:22.5

On a positive day in markets,

0:28.5

although far from the highs we saw in the futures last night, we ended up closing up on the Dow about 117 points. S&P was up for tens of a percent, as was the NASDAQ. So a mildly positive

0:35.8

day. Yesterday was a somewhat orderly down day. The day before was a big up day. Up down. Up down is where you have a 10-year yields dropped, about five bases points. We closed at 443. So the big news was the U.S. Trade Court, International Trade Court, overruled the existing unilateral tariffs that had been

0:57.5

put in by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. That's the IEPA.

1:03.2

And markets were positive on that, basically falsely, assuming that these tariffs would all be

1:07.7

walked back. But what wasn't realized was that, of course, there's appeal process that can be stayed, which overturns that overruling, and everything

1:16.1

stays status quo. And then on top of that, there's four other levers that the administration

1:21.2

has to continue to implement or even keep the existing tariffs in place. There's different sections

1:27.4

in the legal code that allows them to do that.

1:30.0

They have backup plans if they need to use them for now with the overruling or the staying of the overruling at this point,

1:38.4

which means that most of these things have been postponed anyway. And so we're trading a bit sideways in all that news.

1:45.9

On the economic side today, we had a few things out. There was a revision to Q1 GDP, which actually

1:52.9

brought it better than it was previously reported. We went from a negative point three to a negative

1:57.4

point two, so a tenth better. That was mainly around increased investment in the

2:01.9

numbers. So I had initial jobless claims. They were a little bit worse than expected. So we're

2:07.3

creeping a little higher on the unemployment side of things. We went up to $240,000 for the week. We

2:13.5

were expecting $225,000. And on top of that that, the continuing claims number is now 1.91 million.

2:21.4

And that is the highest since November of 21.

2:23.9

So employment is hardly softening that these numbers are week to week.

2:28.5

And so we need a whole lot more of them put together to start causing any sort of alarm.

...

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